# Profoundd archive — Epstein Files
# Bates number: EFTA01176677
# Title:        J.P. Morgan
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=== SUMMARY ===
J.P. Morgan The J.P. Morgan View Signal versus noise • Asset Allocation — Near-term momentum is negative for risk markets, but we find the signal from medium-term drivers more reliable and thus stay with our long risk assets for coming months. • Economics —Fall in Global All-Industry PMI eliminates upside risks on growth, but is consistent with 2.2% global growth projection we have for Q2. Loss of US job momentum implies Q2 may come in closer to 2%. • Fixed Income— End of BoE's QE next week a he


=== EXTRACTED TEXT ===
J.P. Morgan 
The J.P. Morgan View 
Signal versus noise 
• Asset Allocation — Near-term momentum is negative for risk markets, but we 
find the signal from medium-term drivers more reliable and thus stay with our 
long risk assets for coming months. 
• Economics —Fall in Global All-Industry PMI eliminates upside risks on 
growth, but is consistent with 2.2% global growth projection we have for Q2. 
Loss of US job momentum implies Q2 may come in closer to 2%. 
• Fixed Income— End of BoE's QE next week a headwind for gilts. 
• Equities — OW US vs. Euro area equities, DAX vs Eurostoxx50 and MSCI EM 
Asia vs. MSCI EM. 
• Credit — Keep the focus on US credit. 
• Foreign exchange — Remain risk neutral and focused on earning carry in 
cyclical currencies with low vol and non-threatening valuations (Scandinavia) 
while simultaneously selling upside on stretched commodity currencies. 
• Commodities — Neutral outlook favours spread trades over next 3 months. 
• Equity markets this week gave back all their gains of the previous week and 
have now fallen back to the low end of the range they have held over the past 
10 weeks. Commodities and bonds yields continue to fall from the year highs 
seen in March. The dollar is up against most currencies 
This week fall's in risk prices, and the rally in bonds and the dollar, had for 
once little to do with Europe where periphery, yields are down nicely. Instead, 
we are seeing a number of economic data releases, punctuated by today's US 
payrolls report, that show fading momentum into the second quarter. The 
magnitude of the negative surprises are not yet large enough to force 
downgrades of growth forecasts. Our global 2012 projection does slip back to 
the 2.2% forecast we held all through Q I, but this is largely a rounding issue 
caused by last week's US Q1 cut and this week downgrade of Taiwan. 
Market attention has focused on weaker PMIs across the world and US jobs 
data. Our April Global Manufacturing PMI edged back to the January level and 
is thus really unchanged this year. Our Global Services PMI, in contrast, fell 3 
points, pushing our All-Industry PMI down 2 points and back to its November 
level. By themselves, these data are consistent with our 2.2% global growth 
forecast for Q2. They leave us with balanced risk on global growth, even as 
the drop eliminates the upside risk bias we had before this month. 
• Similarly, the weaker US jobs data are signalling a loss of momentum into Q2 
and make it more likely that US Q2 will come closer to 2% flat, compared with 
our 2.5% projection. At the start of the year, we expected average monthly jobs 
growth at 200,000. The first few months came in well above this, while the 
shortfall over the past 2 months brings the YTD mean exactly to 200,000. From 
The certifying analyst is indicated by an Ac. See page 7 for analyst 
certification and important legal and regulatory disclosures. Global Asset Allocation 
J.P. Morgan Chase Bank NA, 
J.P. Morgan Securities Lid. 
May 4, 2012 
Jan LoeysAc 
(1-212) 834-5874 
jan.loeys@jornorgansom 
John Normand 
(44-20) 7325-5222 
john.normand@jamorgan.com 
Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou 
(44-20) 7777-0386 
nikolaos.panigirrzoglou@jamorgan.com 
Seamus Mac Gorain 
(44-20) 7777-2906 
seamus.macgorain@jamorgan.com 
Matthew Lehmann 
(44-20) 7777-1830 
marthew.m.lehmann@jamorgan.com 
Leo Evans 
(44-20) 7742-2537 
leonard.a.evans@jamorgan.com 
YTD returns through May 3 
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EFTA01176677
Global Asset Allocation 
The J.P. Morgan View J.P. Morgan 
this point, there seems little to worry about, but we need to monitor activity 
data over the next month to check for a more meaningfull slide in momentum. 
With economic drivers of spending. such as borrowing costs, gas prices, 
prices, lending standards, and profit margins, to name a few, not showing any 
deterioration and if anything modestly improving, we see no reason yet to get 
overly negative. 
• The difficulty we all have on how to react to recent data prints relative to 
fundamentals and more medium-term trends is known as the signal versus 
noise issue: Are recent swoons in data and prices just noise around a more 
reliable trend, or are they the first sign that this trend is reversing? The answer 
must be that it depends on the strength of the new information relative to the 
medium-term forces. For that, we rely on our economists to sift through the 
data and on empirical evidence on what information over what "lookback" has 
most signal value. On the former, the stability of the 2012 forecasts, and the 
lack of any clear deterioration of global economic drivers — Europe excepted 
— induce us to "underreact" to recent activity data. For markets, we have 
found that 6-month momentum on market returns is a lot more reliable than 
following the last 1.2 months. On this basis, cash should remain the weakest 
asset class over coming months, keeping us long risk assets. 
Euro micro sense, and macro non-sense. Europe remains a risk and irritant to 
markets. We will not review elections and weaker activity data here. Instead, 
we like to make the single point that much of the Euro area's problems appear 
self-inflicted and can be reversed, but only in Europe. In a nutshell, Europe 
appears to have reacted to its sovereign crisis with actions that make eminent 
sense at a micro level, but are disasters on a macro level. Demanding that 
countries should be responsible for their own debt; should not rely on other 
counties to repay their debt; should cut spending when their debt is too high; 
and should force their banks to have enough capital makes enormous sense, 
as that is what we demand from individuals and companies. But such rules 
have the perverse effect of making conditions worse when applied to all EMU 
member counties and banks at the same time. They destroy growth, bank 
lending, and the market for safe government debt all at the same time, in our 
view. A strategy to exit its crisis needs to focus on growth, recapitalizating the 
bank (Euro-TARP?), and make government debt into a desirable asset class 
again. 
Fixed income 
• Bonds rallied on the week. German Bunds are still on a tear, hitting all-time 
yield lows again. We remain flat duration. We do expect yields to increase from 
these very low levels over the next few months, but weakish economic data 
and Euro area uncertainties (including this weekend's elections) make us 
reluctant to position for this at present. 
• Instead we focus risk on exploiting a range of monetary policy crosscurrents. 
In the UK, we expect no further easing this year, with persistent inflation 
having prompted the BoE's typically dovish Posen to withdraw his vote for 
more QE last month. That deterioration in the supply-demand imbalance 
argues for some gilt underperformance. We position for this by adding 10-
year gilt swap spread narrowers, with spreads at the wide end of their recent 
range. 2012 global GDP growth forecasts: JPMorgan 
and Consensus 
4.0 
3.5 
3.0 - 
2.5 -
2.0 - JPM Consensus 
1.5  
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More details in ... 
Global Data Watch. Bruce Kasman and David Hensley 
Global Markets Outlook and Strategy. Jan Loeys. Bruce 
Kasman. et al. 
US Fixed Income Markets. Terry Belton and Sdni 
Ramaswanly 
Globe/ Fixed Income Markets. Pavan Wadhwa and Fabio 
Bassi 
Emerging Markets Outlook and Strategy. Joyce Chang 
Key trades and Ask: Emerging Market Equity Strategy. 
Adrian Mont et al. 
Flows and Liquidity. Nikos Panigirtzoglou et al. 
• We see upside risks to money market rates in both the UK and the US. In the 
May 4,2012 2 
EFTA01176678
Global Asset Allocation 
The J.P. Morgan View J.P, Morgan 
UK, very weak growth would seem to rule out hikes in the near term, but we 
think the money market curve should steepen to incorporate a greater risk of a 
hiking cycle, say two years ahead. In the US, although the most likely course 
is for the FOMC to remain on hold through 2014, we think money market rates 
do not sufficiently reflect the significant tail risk that the unemployment rate 
falls much faster than expected. sparking an earlier hiking cycle. 
Equities 
• What are ow main calls in equities? OW US vs. Euro area equities: as we 
argued last week, the large divergence between yoy EPS growth for the 
S&P500 (+8% yoy) vs. DJStoxx (-7% yoy) supports ow OW in US equities. 
Both the absolute performance of the Q1 reporting season (yoy growth) and 
the relative performance vs. expectations (EPS surprise) were stronger in US 
relative to European equities. 
• OW DAX vs. Eurostorooc50: This trade has performed well in both bullish and 
bearish environments. Although this position works well as a hedge against 
Euro risk, the main motivation is German growth outperformance. This theme is 
still in place as healthier German balance sheets — both private and public —
allow the country to escape the painful adjustments that other Euro area 
countries have to make. German exports are cushioned by their large exposure 
to EM, even if a Euro area recession materialises. The period that this trade did 
badly was last August when the short sale ban forced sellers to use the DAX 
to express a negative view on Euro area equities. 
• OW in MSCI EMAsia$ vs MSCI EMS:A better Chinese PMI raises 
confidence that the Chinese economy is in the process of bottoming out. The 
growth picture in EM Asia x China is also improving (see Daily Economic 
Briefing, David Hensley, May 2). It is encouraging that EM Asia equities 
outperformed in April. Admittedly, this is an exposure that may not perform 
immediately. There is perhaps more upside in the summer as we expect that 
around July/August, two to three months before leadership change in China, a 
large FAI spending program will be announced. 
Credit 
• Spreads were moving tighter coming into today, with US HG breaking out of 
the 2bp range it has held in recent weeks, and double-digit tightening seen in 
higher-beta sectors. But today's disappointing US job data hit risk markets and 
a lot of last week's gains could be undone. On a positive note, retail fund 
flows looked stronger this week, with US HY seeing a solid inflow (above 
$1bn), having dropped off somewhat since February. Strong US HG flows 
continue unabated, as do EM hard currency flows. 
• We published our trade recommendations in GMOS this week, with a general 
theme balancing towards US-based assets. As one of our preferred assets on a 
medium-term horizon. US HY has been outperforming US HG over the last few 
months, which is likely a function of three factors. I) Defaults staying low. We 
keep our 1.5% forecast for 2012, relative to the 4% historical average. 2) The 
HG index is more exposed to Europe due to a higher weight of European 
issuers, as well as the more global nature of HG companies. 3) Financials have 
a much lower weight in the HY space, and they remain at the center of global 
concerns going forward. See today's CMOS for more details as well as a 
discussion about recent divergences in credit-related price trends. More details in ... 
EM Corporate Outlook and Strategy, Warren Mar et al. 
US Credit Markets Outlook and Strategy. Eric Beinstein et al. 
H.gh Yield Credit Markets Week/y. Peter Acciavatti et al. 
European Credit Outlook B Strategy. Steven Dulake et al. 
Emerging Markets Cross Product Strategy Weekly. Eric 
Bensten et al. 
May0,2012 3 
EFTA01176679
Global Asset Allocation 
The J.P. Morgan View J.P, Morgan 
Foreign Exchange 
• The EUR/USD looks surprisingly indifferent to this weekend's French and 
Greek elections. The current level of EUR/USD is consistent with basic models 
linking the spot rate to US-European rate differentials and sovereign spreads, 
and the options market shows no extreme bid for euro puts at either the I-week 
tenor or the 1-month horizon. 
• This pricing is consistent with a view that pre-election campaign rhetoric may 
be quite pitched but post-election policymaking will not be so contentious. In 
France, there is little substantive difference in fiscal policy under Hollande 
versus Sarkozy, since both endorse a balanced budget — Hollande by 2017, 
Sarkozy by 2016. And while Hollande says he rejects the fiscal compact, in 
fact, he has simply argued for a growth pact to accompany it. Germany. Italy 
and Spain also endorse a growth pact, provided it is geared towards structural 
reform and public investment (financed through the European Investment 
Bank) rather than through deficit spending to fund public sector pay rises or 
pensions (the old, discredited European model). The more material risk to the 
Europe under Hollande could come if this new President fails to implement 
structural reform to raise trend growth, since weak growth undermines 
France's creditworthiness. 
• Greek elections are more of a wildcard since both mainstream parties— New 
Democracy and Pasok — poll so low that more extreme elements may enter the 
new governing coalition. An even more fragmented, feckless government 
would raise tensions with the troika and runs the risk that Europe suspends 
the Greek financing program out of frustration with missed fiscal targets. Talk 
of expelling Greece from EMU would then resurface, even though this avenue 
is not legally permissible. 
Commodities 
• Conunoditiessaw broad-based declines, with oil (down around 6%) leading the 
way. The weakish tone to activity data, especially in Europe, has weighed on 
commodities as much as other risky assets. More broadly, oil has been 
challenged by the combination of strong supply (including from rapid 
progress in rebuilding Libyan and Iraqi output), and weaker demand due to 
refinery maintenance. Our expectation of stronger oil demand as the year goes 
on underlies our outlook for higher prices in H2. 
• The spread between Brent and WTI crude oil has narrowed significantly over 
the past month. The Brent-WTI spread can be thought of as a proxy for the 
cost of moving surplus oil from Cushing, where WTI is priced, to the Gulf 
Coast. The reversal of the Seaway pipeline later this month will allow oil to 
flow south out of Cushing, and should narrow the spread from its current level 
of $15/bbl towards $6/bbl over time, reflecting the lower cost of transporting 
oil via the pipeline rather than by rail or barge. See last Monday's Oil Market 
Weekly, Eagles et al.. 
• Our overall commodity outlook remains neutral, and so favours spread trades 
in the near term. Today's Commodity Market Outlook and Strategy (Colin 
Fenton) examines how commodity spreading strategies have performed since 
1970, depending on the month, inflation environment and weather. For May. 
this analysis suggests owning natural gas, crude oil and corn, against sales 
in gasoline, wheat, and cattle. FX weekly change vs USD 
2.0% 
1.0% 
0.0% 
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-3.0% — 
USD JPY EUR GBP CHF CAD AUD 
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Save,. J P Yawn 
More details in ... 
FX Markets Weekly. John Normand of at 
Commodity Markets Outlook & Strategy. Cohn 
Fenton et al. 
Oil Markets Monthly. Lawrence Eagles et al. 
Metals Review and Outlook, Michael Jansen 
Global Metals Quarterty. Michael Jansen 
May4,2012 4 
EFTA01176680
Global Asset Allocation 
The J.P. Morgan View 
Interest rates Current Jun.12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 J.P, Morgan 
YTD Return* 
United States Fed funds rate 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 
10-year yields 1.88 2.40 2.50 2.50 2.50 02% 
Euro area Refi rate 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 
10-year yields 1.58 1.50 2.00 2_00 2.00 1.6% 
United Kingdom Repo rate 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 
10-year yields 2.00 2.55 2.55 2.40 2.40 1.1% 
Japan Overnight call rate 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 
10-year yields 0.88 1.15 1.05 1.05 1.15 0.9% 
GBI-EM hedged in S Yield . Global Diversfied 6.25 6.30 3.0% 
Credit Markets Current Index YTD Return' 
US high grade (bp over UST) 197 JP/Aorgan JULI Portia Spread to Treasury 3.7% 
Euro high grade (bp over Euro gov) 262 iBenor Euro Corporate Index 4.3% 
USD high yield (bp vs. UST) 622 JP/Amgen Global High Yield Index STW 7.0% 
Euro high yield (hp over Euro gov) 852 ifilcou Euro HY Index 12.2% 
EMBIG (bp vs. UST) 344 EMBI Global 7.5% 
EM Corporates gx) vs. UST) 386 JPM EM Corporates (CEMBI) 7.4% 
Commodities Current Quarterly Averages 
1202 1203 1204 1301 GSCI Index YTD Return* 
Brent (VDU) 113 112 120 125 125 Energy 7.8% 
Gold (Slot) 1644 1825 1900 1925 1850 Precious Metals 5.8% 
Copper (S/metric ton) 8285 8500 8875 9000 8750 Industrial Metals 6.7% 
Corn {Silk) 
Foreign Exchange 6.20 
Current 6.70 6.50 6.60 
Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Agriculture 0.0% 
3m cash YID Return' 
Index in USD 
EURIUSD 1.31 1.34 1.36 1.36 1.36 EUR 2.0% 
USDHPY 79.9 78 80 78 80 JPY 42% 
GBP/USD 1.62 1.61 1.62 1.62 1.62 GBP 4.9% 
USD/BRL 1.92 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.90 BRL 0.7% 
USD/CNY 6.31 6.20 6.20 6.10 6.10 CNY 01% 
USCHKRW 1132 1120 1100 1090 1090 Km 3.0% 
USD/TRY 1.76 1.80 1.77 1.75 1.70 TRY 10.4% 
YTD Return 
Equities Current (local ccy) US Europe 
Sector Allocation Y11) YID Japan 
YTD EM 
YTD (S) 
SEP 1372 9.8% Energy 1.1% -2.1% 2.9% 8.8% 
Nasdaq 2964 13.5% Matenats 8.9% 9.9% 7.4% 7.2% 
Toplx 793 10.0% Industrials 9.6% 9.3% 8.1% 14.7% 
FTSE 100 5655 2.9% Discrebonary 17.9% 182% 151% 14.2% 
MSCI Eurozone 134 3.8% Staples 6.5% 7.1% 12.0% 12.9% 
hISCI Europe' 1062 5.3% Healthcare 8.6% 4.7% 4.9% 13.8% 
MSCI EM 5' 1024 12.6% Financials 184% 5.5% 19.2% 12.6% 
Brazil Bovespa 60831 7.2% Inbrmaton Tech. 18.4% 6.6% 9.0% 22.2% 
Hang Seng 21086 14.6% Teleccinmunications 8.1% -7.1% -2.5% 11.0% 
Shanghai SE 2452 10.9% 
*Levelsfretums as of May 03, 2012 
Local currency except MSCI EM S Names -0.3% -2.0% 0.3% 8.7% 
Overall 9.8% 5.3% 10.0% 12.6% 
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May 4, 2012 5 
EFTA01176681
Global Asset Allocation 
The J.P. Morgan View J. P Morgan 
Global Economic Outlook Summary 
Real GDP 
%Crier a yea ay) Real GDP 
S orec recess mad. saar Consumer prices 
S Crier a year ago 
2011 2012 2013 4Q11 1Q12 2012 3012 4012 1Q13 2Q13 4011 2012 4012 2Q13 
The Americas 
United States 1.7 2.4 22 3.0 2.2 2.5 3.0 2.0 1.5 2.3 3.3 2.1 1.8 1.6 
Canada 2.5 2.3 2.5 1.8 2.1 2.6 2.3 2.4 2.7 2.4 2.7 1.7 1.7 2.0 
Latn America 4.3 3.8 4.0 2.4 12 4.6 4 4.4 t 4.1 4.4 3.8 1.2 6.4 6.2 4 6.9 
Argentina 
Brazil 
Chile 8.9 
2.9 
6.0 4.5 
3.1 
5.0 4.0 
4.5 
4.5 32 
1.3 
82 0.0 
2.6 
5.1 5.5 
4.5 4 
4.9 6.5 
5.7t 
4.6 5.0 
5.7 
4.7 3.0 
4.5 
4.5 4.0 
4.5 
4.4 9.6 
6.7 
4.0 10.0 
0.01 
4.2 10.0 
0.01 
3.9 11.0 
5.3 
3.4 
Colombia 5.9 5.0 5.0 5.4 4.5 4.9 4.1 3.0 5.7 6.0 3.9 3.6 3.3 3.0 
Ecuadcr 7.8 4.0 4.0 4.1 2.0 3.5 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 5.5 5.3 4.7 41 
Mexico 3.9 3.8 35 11 1.1 3.9 2.0 3.2 4.9 2.8 3.5 4.2 4.0 3.8 
Peru 6.9 5.5 7.0 2.8 12 5.8 6.2 7.3 8.0 8.0 4.5 3.9 3.1 3.0 
Venezuela 4.2 4.0 1.0 3.5 6.0 6.0 4.0 -3.0 0.0 0.0 28.5 23.9 23.4 31.7 
AsimPacific 
Japan -0.7 2.0 13 -01 2.8 2.0 1A 1.2 1.0 12 -0.3 0.1 0.1 -0.1 
Australia 2.0 3.0 3.3 1.7 3.1 1.9 3.7 4.1 4.5 2.0 3.1 2.5 3.3 3.0 
New Zealand 1A 2.9 21 1.4 5.1 2.1 3.7 3.0 0.9 3.4 1.8 1.2 2.5 2.1 
Asia ex Japan 
China 
Haig Kong 7.0 
9.2 
5.0 6.44 
8.2 
2.8 7.1 
9.1 
42 4.6 
8.8 
1.2 4 _801 
6.8 
LO 6.7 
LB 
4.0 7.2 t 
9.5 
5.5 7.3 
10.0 
6.0 7.0 
9.1 
3.0 7.0 
81 
3.5 4.9 
4.6 
5.7 3.9 
3.3 
4.4 4 4.34 
3.6 
3.5 4 4.81 
4.6 
3.4 t 
India 7.0 7.1 7.3 3.8 t31) 5.5 6.3 6.5 6.7 7.5 8.4 7.8 8.2 8.5 
Indonesia 6.5 5.3 5.5 9.9 5.0 5.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 5.5 4.1 3.9 7.4 7.3 
Korea 3.6 3.3 4.0 1.3 3.7 4.0 4.5 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 2.6 4 2.9 4 3.5 4 
Malaysia 5.1 3.9 32 4.8 5.0 2.0 2.0 2.5 4.0 4.5 3.2 2.6 2.2 1.8 
Philippines 3.7 4.3 4.8 3.5 4.3 4.9 5.7 4.9 4.5 4.5 4.7 3.9 4.0 4.0 
Singapore 4.9 3.7 4.0 -2.5 0,0 6.6 3.2 2.0 4.5 4.5 5.5 4.6 3.4 2.8 
Taiwan 4.0 2.44 5.0t ],04 4.8 6.5 t 5.8t 4.5 4.6 1.4 1.3 1.7 12 
Thailand 
Africa/Middle East 0.1 5.1 3.5 -36.4 45.0 20.0 2.0 0.5 5.0 6.5 4.0 3.7 3.5 3.2 
Israel 4.8 2.9 4.4 32 10 3.2 6.1 7.4 4.5 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.5 2.1 
South Africa 
Europe 3.1 2.7 3.6 32 2.3 2.6 2.8 3.2 3.8 3.5 6.1 6.0 6.2 5.9 
Euro area 1.5 -0.4 0.4 -12 -0.5 -0.8 -0.5 0.3 0.5 0.5 2.9 2.4 2.2 1.7 
Germany 3.1 0.6 1.4 -0.7 03 1.0 0.8 1.3 1.5 1.5 2.6 2.3 2.1 1.7 
France 1.7 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 2.6 2.6 2.3 1.9 
Italy 0.5 -t9 -0.7 -2.6 .25 -2.5 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 3.7 3.6 4.0 3.6 
Norway 2.7 1.4 1.8 25 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 25 0.9 0.9 1.4 11 
Sweden 4.0 -0.3 1/ -4.4 &,0 -0.5 0.5 1.0 2.0 2.3 2.3 1.1 1.1 1.5 
United Kingdom 0.7 0.1 1.9 -12 -0.8 -1.0 2.5 1.5 2.0 2.0 4.6 3.0 3.0 2.7 
Emerging Europe 4.8 2.8 3.4 4 4.6 1.2 1.4 3.0 3.1 3.3 4 3.1 4 6.4 5.0 5.5 6.1 
Bulgaria 1.7 1.5 2.5 
Czech Republic 1.7 -0.2 0.9 1 -0.5 AB -1.0 1.0 4 2.2 4 1.1 1 -I.7 4 2.4 2.7 2.9 2.5 
Hungary 1.7 0.5 13 12 A1.0 0.3 1.0 1.5 1.5 2.0 4.1 5.8 5.9 3.8 
Poland 4.3 3.2 3.0 4.5 a 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.0 3.0 4.6 3.9 3.5 2.8 
Romania 2.5 0.8 2.7 -0.8 -1.2 -1.5 0.8 2.4 2.5 3.0 3.4 3.3 4.4 4.0 
Russia 4.3 3.7 3.7 6.4 1.5 2.0 4.0 3.5 4.0 4.0 6.8 3.9 6.1 6.8 
Turkey 8.5 2.5 43 9.2 9.0 6.8 8.8 
Global 2.6 2.2 1 2.6 1.5 2.4 2.2 2.7 t 2.5 2.4 1 2.6 3.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 
Devebped markets 1.3 1.2 13 0.6 t2 1.0 1.5 1.3 1.3 15 2.8 2.0 1.8 1.6 
Emerging markets 5.8 5.0 5.6 4.0 U 4 5.2 4 5.7 5.8 5.7 5.5 5.7 4/ 4 5.0 4 5.6 
Scutt: LP kbrign 
May 4,2012 6 
EFTA01176682
Global Asset Allocation 
The J.P. Morgan View J.P.Morgan 
Analyst Certification: The research analyst(s) denoted by an "AC" on the cover of this report certifies (or, where multiple 
research analysts are primarily responsible for this report, the research analyst denoted by an "AC" on the cover or 
within the document individually certifies, with respect to each security or issuer that the research analyst covers in this 
research) that: (1) all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about any and all 
of the subject securities or issuers; and (2) no part of any of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be 
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Global Asset Allocation 
The J.P. Morgan View J.P. Morgan 
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May4,2012 8 
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=== IMAGE DESCRIPTIONS ===
[Image 1] The image shows a page from a document, which appears to be a report or analysis titled "The JP Morgan View." The document is authored by individuals named John and Matt. The page contains text and a graph, which seems to be related to financial data or market analysis. The visible text includes phrases such as "Signal a US recession," "Signal a US recovery," and "Signal a US expansion." The graph

[Image 2] The image shows a document with text, which appears to be a page from a report or a presentation. The text is organized in a structured manner with headings and bullet points. The document includes a title at the top, followed by a list of topics or sections, each with a brief description or summary. The text is in English, and the font is standard for printed documents. There are no visible names

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[Image 4] The image shows a page from a document, which appears to be a report or article. The text is organized into numbered sections with headings such as "Introduction," "Background," "Analysis," and "Conclusion." The document is authored by J.L. Morgan, as indicated by the name at the bottom of the page. The text discusses economic and financial topics, mentioning specific entities like the Federal Res

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[Image 6] The image shows a document with text, which appears to be a page from a report or a presentation. The text is in English and is written in a formal, academic or professional style. The document is titled "J.L. Morgan" at the top, suggesting that this could be the name of the author or the subject of the report. The text is dense and includes paragraphs with subheadings, indicating a structured and