Artificial Intelligence for Efficiency Sustainability and Inclusivity in TradeTech 2025

The future of trade: collaboration for convergence The successful implementation of AI stands at a critical juncture, with two paths ahead: AI convergence and AI divergence. Convergence could boost real growth in global goods and services trade by 13.6 percentage points through 2040, while divergence could yield a more modest increase of 9.3 percentage points – a difference of approximately 38%.22 AI divergence – trade islands AI divergence, resulting from an asymmetric and fragmented implementation of the technology, could lead to “trade islands”, wherein trade flows are concentrated through countries that quickly and fully adopt AI as a result of the increased efficiency, transparency and traceability possible through this technology. History offers a telling parallel in containerization, which increased North-North trade by approximately 700% over two decades, while North-South and South-South trade saw substantially lower gains.23 This concentration need not be permanent: containerization eventually became the global standard, and late adopters benefitted from the lessons learned and innovations developed by early adopters. Trade islands, should they occur, would not be a permanent divide but rather a transitional phase towards a more integrated and dynamic global trade landscape enabled by AI. Nevertheless, the transition period could be shortened or avoided altogether through coordinated action focused on enabling human- AI collaboration and facilitating human-human collaboration to reach AI convergence. Human-AI collaboration Successful AI integration into global trade involves collaboration with (rather than the replacement of) human expertise. AI brings unprecedented capabilities in data analysis, pattern recognition and predictive modelling, while human judgement remains essential for innovation, contextual understanding, ethical oversight and strategic decision-making. Combining these skill sets is vastly more powerful than either entity operating in isolation. When implemented effectively, AI handles intensive data processing, freeing humans to focus on higher- order challenges that require both quantitative insight and qualitative understanding – from strategic planning to ethical oversight of complex systems. AI convergence therefore depends on thoughtful workforce development by businesses and governments to train the current workforce while preparing future generations for an AI- enhanced landscape. Robust digital infrastructure and innovation incentives are key to human-AI collaboration, enabling humans to continuously improve the technology’s capabilities. By investing in computational resources, data systems and innovation frameworks, environments where technology and human creativity can work together effectively can flourish. Strategic incentives, such as research funding, collaborative platforms and training programmes, encourage diverse talents to engage with AI, ensuring that its development is representative and remains responsive to human needs. This can transform AI from a standalone technology into a powerful collaborative tool that enhances human problem-solving and potential. Human-human collaboration Collaboration among humans, through international regulatory coordination and PPPs, is essential to reaching AI convergence. Regulatory coordination can establish common standards and frameworks to ensure interoperability between systems and establish trust in the technology. International bodies like the World Trade Organization (WTO) have a role to play in minimizing regulatory fragmentation and ultimately preventing AI divergence. Regulatory frameworks must be comprehensive, focusing on interoperability, security and transparency to mitigate fragmentation while remaining flexible enough to accommodate AI innovation – a difficult balancing act, given the speed of innovation. The implementation of AI across global trade at every scale is inevitable, given the gains the technology offers businesses and governments. Collaboration among humans, through international regulatory coordination and PPPs, is essential to reaching AI convergence. 31 Artificial Intelligence for Efficiency, Sustainability and Inclusivity in TradeTech