Beyond Tourism Coordinated Pathways to Inclusive Prosperity 2025

The global T&T sector stands on the cusp of unprecedented change. As highlighted in the World Economic Forum’s recent report, Travel and Tourism at a Turning Point: Principles for Transformative Growth, the sector has rebounded from the seismic disruptions of the past five years, most notably the COVID-19 pandemic, only to find itself at a complex crossroads. By 2034, T&T is projected to serve approximately 30 billion tourist visits and contribute $16 trillion to global GDP , accounting for more than 11% of the global economy.1 This strong growth trajectory underscores the sector’s economic and cultural importance, yet it also brings into sharper focus a series of persistent challenges and emerging tensions that demand urgent re-examination of established models.Sector growth vs. tension points The previous report identified important growth vectors, such as evolving traveller profiles driven by emerging markets and new generational preferences, the rise of specialized tourism segments – including wellness, events and ecotourism – as well as the transformative role of technology. At the same time, the sector is dealing with stubborn and, in some cases, intensifying tension points. Friction between an ever-growing visitor base and residents has escalated in iconic destinations, fuelling debates over “overtourism”, housing affordability and resource allocation. Environmental pressures are also mounting. In 2023, the sector contributed to nearly 7% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, 6% of water use and over 11% of air pollution.2 At the same time, workforce shortages, investment gaps and the risk of global disruptions – from geopolitical realignments to extreme weather – threaten the sector’s foundations. As its growth accelerates, the T&T sector confronts tensions that isolated solutions cannot resolve, demanding new approaches to coordination and collaboration.Introduction: The moment for transformation Highlights of travel and tourism growth and tension points FIGURE 1 Growth areas Tension pointsTravel tech (market ~$10bn in 2024) is expecting to double, serving as an enabler for new visitors with continuous focus on flexibility and transparency, but also carries inherent risksTechnology as an enabler 3 In the most visited cities, visitor-to-resident ratios could rise by over 50% in the next decade, pressuring local capacity and standards of livabilityIncreased friction: visitors vs. residents5 By 2034, the sector is expected to generate 100m+ jobs, yet it currently faces labour and skills shortages in many countries (e.g. in the US, job openings outpaced hires in leisure and hospitality for 8 out of 12 months in 2024)Talent and skills shortage7 Serving ~30bn tourists in the future will require infrastructure and asset investments (e.g. ~25m hotel rooms by 2034) as well as regulatory and other changes to expedite developmentInfrastructure and investment requirements9 Fast-growing middle classes, e.g. in India and China, are creating new traveller patterns and will account for more than 25% share of total international trips by 2030Evolving traveller profiles1 Disruptions from pandemics, geopolitical events, climate change and regulatory shifts can lead to losses; in 2020, COVID-19 caused a loss of nearly $4.5 trillion in sector GDPRisk of global disruptions4 By 2034, the sector could strain natural systems and account for 15% of total GHG emissions, 10% of global energy consumption and 7% of solid waste productionGrowing pressure on nature6 SMEs represent 80% of the sector; to properly serve expected demand, they will require support as travellers seek local experiencesLocal capacity-building 8 Cultural homogenization and heritage preservation; in studies of World Heritage Sites, inappropriate plans and systems affected 70% of cultural sites analysedCultural and heritage dynamics 10 New segments will emerge and become growth drivers, e.g. sports tourism (16% CAGR), ecotourism (14% CAGR), bleisure (12% CAGR) and wellness (8% CAGR)Growing segments as drivers*2 Notes: CAGR = compound annual growth rate; MICE = meetings, incentives, conferences and exhibitions. *CAGR for all subsectors runs to at least 2032, except bleisure, which is to 2029. Source: World Economic Forum Friction between an ever-growing visitor base and residents has escalated in iconic destinations, fuelling debates. Beyond Tourism: Coordinated Pathways to Inclusive Prosperity 5