Building Geopolitical Muscle 2026

2021 and tariffs announced in 2025 on Belarussian and Russian fertilizers disrupted supply chains but also opened new market opportunities and competitive dynamics for both European and non- European producers. These opportunities emerge in different ways, through reputation, strategic moves, policy influence or commercial positioning, depending on geopolitical disruptions and sectors. The first advantage is reputation: in complex markets, operational continuity builds trust. A logistics leader summed it up: “Clients trust us because we’ve proved we can operate even in hostile environments.” The second is strategic: when competitors retreat under regulatory pressure, those who stay or return early capture market share. A third lies in policy engagement. Firms that engage constructively with governments and multilateral institutions can contribute to informing regulation. A critical infrastructure company, for instance, maintains regular dialogues with more than 10 governments on infrastructure resilience regulation. Targeted geopolitical understanding can also support business growth. One company interviewed demonstrated this during a recent tendering process in a South-East Asian country, using geopolitical insights to calibrate their commercial pitch and secure part of a split order contract. Mature firms, those further along in developing geopolitical capabilities, ask different questions. Organizations with ad hoc and sporadic capabilities ask “What is happening?” or “Who should respond?” losing valuable time. Those that are more advanced, with more systematic and institutionalized muscle, ask “How should we respond?” and “When is the right moment to act?” The shift is subtle but decisive: it turns geopolitics from a sporadic shock to a managed variable of corporate strategy. Defining what geopolitical muscle means in practice is key to understanding how companies can build it. In most companies, geopolitics has long been the domain of the CEO or the board, addressed episodically when crises arise or when state relations directly affect operations. That model is no longer sustainable. The frequency and simultaneity of shocks now demand institutionalized capacity, not infrequent attention by individuals. Geopolitical muscle represents this institutionalization: the ability to sense, reoptimize and act at scale systematically. It is the difference between knowing that a new export ban is coming and having a ready playbook to adjust procurement, engage regulators and brief customers. A few firms have already moved in this direction. A global investment firm headquartered in Asia has developed a globally distributed geopolitical team with hubs in Washington, Brussels and Beijing, embedded directly in investment committees. An industrial goods company created a geopolitics and international relations unit within its government affairs function, with strong ties to the board of directors, enterprise risk management (ERM) and business lines. Yet fewer than 20% of the companies interviewed have an explicit geopolitics or international relations unit. Most integrate this capability within existing structures. Having a geopolitically explicit function can help clarify and locate ownership, but it is not sufficient on its own to secure a competitive advantage. Despite differences in structure, the best performers share a common purpose: to connect geopolitical awareness directly to business decision-making. The essential feature is not hierarchy but integration: –Informing and advising to raise awareness within main corporate functions and business lines on the relevance of geopolitics to achieve their goals and bottom line –Convening and coordinating to ensure that geopolitical intelligence reaches the decision nodes when and where it can change outcomes The research for this paper highlights five essential building blocks (Figure 3) that together define what it means to build geopolitical muscle: –Mandate: Delegation of authority beyond the board and CEO and clear objectives driving geopolitical responses –Radar and sonar: Sources and tools used to detect geopolitical insights and data as well as an assessment and synthesis approach to translate them for the business –Operating model: Structure determining where geopolitics sits in the organization (e.g. host function), distance to the CEO and cross- organization collaboration –Talent: Background and expertise required to be credible internally and externally –Decision-making integration: Decision- making bodies and processes to be embedded to drive action1.3 Defining geopolitical muscle Geopolitics is not always a risk; it can also enhance reputation, open strategic opportunities, deepen policy engagement and support commercial positioning. Building Geopolitical Muscle: How Companies Turn Insights into Strategic Advantage 9