Business on the Edge 2024

2.1 Our planet’s life-support systems are severely threatened 2.2 Five Earth systems are at imminent risk of tipping today While some effects of the nature and climate crisis are already apparent today, other more serious consequences are on the horizon. The science is clear that risks are mounting but the precise timing and magnitude of the impending changes are difficult to specify, given the complexity and interdependencies of Earth systems and their tipping points.A tipping point is a critical threshold that, when reached, leads to a significant change in the state of the system that is typically irreversible.25 Given their scale, the degradation and tipping of Earth systems pose grave threats to the future of our species, affecting liveability and survivability in many geographies around the world. Crossing an Earth system tipping point “will severely damage our planet’s life-support systems and threaten the stability of our societies”, according to the authors of the Global Tipping Points Report 2023.26 At present levels of global heating, five Earth systems are close to crossing tipping points:27 –Greenland ice sheet collapse –West Antarctic ice sheet collapse –Warm-water coral reef die-off –Labrador & Irminger Seas convection collapse –Boreal permafrost abrupt thaw28 Land ice on the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets – melting rapidly and close to crossing tipping points – represents 10 metres of sea-level rise29 with unavoidable rises already locked in.30 Communities around the world are experiencing the effects of coastal erosion, flooding and storm surges. Some 630 million people live on land lying below projected annual flood levels for the end of the century.31 The displacement of so many people could lead to a global security crisis, with increased competition for freshwater, land and other resources. For more information on risks to land ice, the chain of geographic reactions unlocked when it melts and the global consequences of its decline and tipping, refer to Figure 8. Sea ice is showing marked signs of deterioration. Regardless of emissions scenarios, there is likely to be at least one sea-ice-free summer in the Arctic before 2050. Decreased sea ice extent creates a feedback loop that amplifies warming, because darker water absorbs a greater amount of solar radiation compared with reflective, white sea ice. Amplified Arctic warming destabilizes the polar jet stream which could lead to increased temperature extremes at lower latitudes. For more information on risks to sea ice, the chain of geographic reactions unlocked when it melts and the global consequences of its decline and tipping, refer to Figure 9. The Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets – close to crossing their tipping points – represent 10 metres of sea-level rise with unavoidable rises already locked in. 17 Business on the Edge: Building Industry Resilience to Climate Hazards