Business on the Edge 2024

Shocking scientific fact Regardless of emissions scenarios, there is likely to be at least one sea-ice-free summer in the Arctic before 2050.What is it? Sea ice is frozen sea water that floats on the surface of the polar oceans. It reflects solar radiation and moderates heat exchange to maintain Earth’s temperature balance. It also provides habitat for marine organisms fostering biodiversity and affects ocean circulation and carbon and nutrient cycles. As air and ocean temperatures rise, sea ice thins, covers a smaller extent and becomes more vulnerable to storms and waves. What are the implications? Decreased sea ice extent creates a feedback loop that amplifies warming at the poles, due to darker water absorbing a greater amount of solar radiation. Amplified Arctic warming destabilizes the polar jet stream which could lead to increased temperature extremes at lower latitudes. Changes in polar ecosystems threaten livelihoods of Arctic people and unique species (e.g. seals, walrus, polar bears) that depend on sea ice as a primary habitat.Temperature scenario Arctic summer sea ice collapse* Arctic winter sea ice collapse Barents Sea ice abrupt loss*Scientific confidenceRelated Earth system tipping points Where does it occur?1.5 – 2.0ºC >6.0ºC 1.5 – 1.7ºCHigh High LowSea ice Related climate hazards Barents sea ice abrupt loss Arctic winter sea ice collapse Arctic summer sea ice collapse Ice-free summer in the Arctic –Regardless of future emissions, there is likely to be at least one sea-ice-free summer in the Arctic by 2050. –The Arctic Ocean is expected to remain ice-covered in winter throughout the century, but the ice will become thinner and more vulnerable to storms and waves.* Not expected to show tipping behaviour but can trigger tipping events in the ocean- atmosphere-cryosphere system. Socio-economic consequences 1 Thawing Arctic permafrost and melting sea ice will cause extra economic losses. 2 Amplified Arctic warming could alter the jet stream and increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, including heatwaves in North America and cold winter extremes in the northern continents. These changes may lead to more persistent and prolonged adverse weather patterns globally. 3 Sea ice loss can have a profound impact on Indigenous communities in the Arctic, affecting their traditional ways of life and making it harder for them to access food. 4 The extent and seasonality of Arctic sea ice determines the viability of shipping routes as well as oil and gas exploration and exploitation. Concerns about associated geopolitical tensions and conflicts over access to more economic shipping routes and offshore hydrocarbons have been raised.Network diagramContinuation of sea ice decline Future projections under the IPCC’s emission scenarios: –assume a continuation of sea ice decline. –project an ice-free-year-round Barents Sea by the end of this century.What could happen? Increased GHGsGlobal warmingOcean circulation disruptionSea ice lossDecreased reflection of solar radiation Loss of Arctic speciesAmplified warming Changes to heat and nutrient distributionExtreme heat Drought Coastal floodingWildfire Feedback loopFIGURE 9 | LANDSCAPE BRIEF Business on the Edge: Building Industry Resilience to Climate Hazards 20