Business on the Edge 2024

What is it? Permafrost is named after ‘permanently frozen’ land. It is ground that remains completely frozen (0°C or less) for at least two years in a row. It accounts for nearly half of all organic carbon stored within the planet’s soil. Arctic permafrost is a home to 5 million inhabitants. As the climate warms permafrost begins to thaw, resulting in number of socio-economic consequences. What are the implications? When permafrost begins to thaw, carbon dioxide and methane are released into the atmosphere. This could further speed up global warming and permafrost thawing. Thawing permafrost causes softening of the frozen land and its erosion. This eventually causes the ground to move, leading to slumping, landslides and damage to local infrastructure. Ancient bacteria and viruses, as well as toxic waste hidden in the ice and soil, are released when permafrost thaws. These newly-unfrozen microbes could unleash major disease outbreaks.Temperature scenario Boreal permafrost abrupt thaw Boreal permafrost collapseScientific confidenceRelated Earth system tipping points Where does it occur?1.0 – 2.3ºC 3.0 – 6.0ºCMedium Low Boreal permafrost abrupt thaw Boreal permafrost abrupt thaw Shocking scientific fact Permafrost emissions could consume 25-40% of our remaining carbon budget within the next 80-100 years.What could happen? Loss of near surface permafrost –High emissions scenario leads to the cumulative release of tens to hundreds of billions of tonnes of permafrost carbon as CO2 and methane to the atmosphere by 2100. –If the climate were stabilized at 2°C warming, 40% of near-surface permafrost area would be lost. –However, stabilizing the climate at 1.5°C warming would save approx. 2 million km2 of permafrost.Damage to infrastructure –An estimated 70% of infrastructure in the Arctic, particularly oil & gas- related, is located in areas where thawing of permafrost is expected to intensify by 2050. –Risk of damage to infrastructure is especially pronounced in Russia, which produces 80% of its natural gas in the Arctic.Permafrost Related climate hazards Water stress Wildfire Extreme heatCoastal flooding Socio-economic consequences 1 Thawing permafrost has led to slumping ground, which damages infrastructure. 2 Toxic industrial contaminants, which include lead, mercury and arsenic, could be released from thawing permafrost. 3 Permafrost thaw is a challenge for many of the 907 Arctic communities living on permafrost. Impacts include destabilization of infrastructure, reduction in food accessibility and declining human health. 4 A 2015 study found that greenhouse gas emissions from thawing Arctic permafrost could result in an additional $43 trillion in economic impacts by 2200. 5 Permafrost is a potential reservoir of pathogens. Permafrost thaw could lead to the release of viruses and microorganisms that may be harmful to humans, animals and plants.Network diagram Increased GHGsGlobal warmingLand slumpsToxic waste release Coastal erosion Frozen viruses release (zombie viruses)GHG release Permafrost thawFeedback loopFIGURE 12 | LANDSCAPE BRIEF Business on the Edge: Building Industry Resilience to Climate Hazards 23