Extreme weather and flooding impact lives and infrastructure Extreme weather events pose a fundamental direct threat to human health, disproportionately impacting the most vulnerable populations. It is estimated that the climate crisis will lead to an additional 14.5 million deaths by 2050,112 79% of which will be in low-and middle-income countries.113 Floods alone are expected to cause 8.5 million deaths by 2050.114 Healthcare infrastructure is particularly vulnerable. Storms and flooding cause significant damage to hospitals, medical devices and capacity for critical procedures.115 Cooling-dependent equipment (such as ventilators, MRI machines or refrigerators for storing biological samples) and cold chains for medication and vaccine storage are highly susceptible to power outages and logistics disruptions. Extreme weather events lead to substantial repair costs and increased healthcare expenses, placing long-lasting pressure on the entire system. Risk of damage to hospitals from extreme weather events has already increased by 41% since 1990.116 By 2100, 1 in 12 hospitals globally will be at risk of a shutdown due to climate hazards, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, increasing mortality rates.117 Damage to hospital structures forces evacuations and closures that overstretch other hospitals, lowering the quality of care they can provide and restricting access to preventive healthcare.118 Extreme heat and air pollution exacerbates disease Elevated temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns will increase the spread of infectious diseases, such as malaria, dengue, West Nile virus and Zika.119 By 2050, an additional 500 million people may be at risk of exposure to vector-borne diseases.120 Rising temperatures in the poles increase the risk of releasing pathogens trapped in permafrost for millennia (zombie viruses), raising the likelihood of dangerous outbreaks, which health systems are not prepared to manage.121 Extreme heat and air pollution are also likely to exacerbate cardiovascular, respiratory and mental health diseases.122 This will further strain healthcare systems, disrupt labour productivity and necessitate significant investments in public health.Water risk and cold chain failure affect manufacture of and access to medicines Health-related industries, including pharmaceuticals and life sciences, will face escalating production delays, costs and distribution challenges. The pharma industry’s reliance on water makes it highly vulnerable to water-related risks and may result in disrupted medicine production.123 Disruptions to cold-chain storage and transit124 may cause active medical ingredients to degrade and become ineffective,125 which not only leads to financial losses for the companies but also undermines the adequate provision of healthcare.126 Failures in the cold chain have been linked to outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases, particularly in developing countries, which further increases healthcare costs and damages public health outcomes.127 Business on the Edge: Building Industry Resilience to Climate Hazards 38

Business on the Edge 2024