Chief Economists Outlook January 2025

13Chief Economists Outlook 22 International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2024c). 23 Gaspar, V. (2024). 24 International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2024c).In terms of fiscal policy, large majorities of the chief economists surveyed expect a looser stance in the US and China this year (75% and 90%, respectively), while views on Europe are split but with a slight skew towards tightening. Elsewhere, most respondents expect fiscal policy to remain unchanged in the year ahead. However, the backdrop for fiscal policy decisions is likely to continue to pose significant challenges. The latest IMF estimate for global public debt in 2024 is more than $100 trillion, with the potential to reach 115% of GDP over the next three years.22 Moreover, governments will face mounting pressures to address a “fiscal policy trilemma”23 of dealing with the costs related to security, population ageing and climate change, without either jeopardizing debt sustainability or leading to political pushback against rising taxes.24