Chief Economists Outlook January 2025

17Chief Economists Outlook Figure 9. Growth impact What will be the impact of the next US administration’s policy agenda on growth… …in the US? Source: Chief Economists Survey. (2024, November).Negative Somewhat negative Neutral Somewhat positive Positive Share of respondents (%)9 59 9 12 326 26 Long-term impactShort-term impact Medium-term impact 71 18 3 53 3A majority (56%) also expects the unemployment rate to remain unchanged, while almost two-thirds (62%) expect wage levels to rise. A large majority of respondents (80%) anticipate stock market gains, in line with widespread expectations of a business-friendly stance in areas such as taxes and deregulation. On expectations for growth, the chief economists differentiate between likely trends in the US and internationally (see Figure 9). Domestically, almost half (47%) expect a positive or somewhat positive short-term impact on growth from the new administration’s policy agenda, but this figure falls away in the medium term (27%), and over the long term, more than half of respondents (53%) expect the impact of policy to be somewhat negative or negative on growth. Globally, the position is more unambiguously gloomy, with large majorities expecting a negative or somewhat negative impact on growth over the short term (68%), medium term (80%) and long term (65%). …globally?Share of respondents (%)12 21 9 38 12 41 129 21 38 Long-term impactShort-term impact Medium-term impact 26 21 6 29 6Negative Somewhat negative Neutral Somewhat positive Positive