Chief Economists Outlook May 2025

24Chief Economists Outlook Figure 23. Debt sustainability Looking ahead to the remainder of 2025, do you agree/disagree with the following? Debt sustainability will be a growing concern in... Developing economies Advanced economies3 5 21 63 1124 53 21 Share of respondents (%)Strongly disagree Disagree Uncertain Agree Strongly agree Source: Chief Economists Survey. (2025, April). When the chief economists were asked to identify the most likely adverse impacts of heightened economic uncertainty, 70% chose trade volumes, followed narrowly by GDP growth (68%) and FDI (62%). FDI was already estimated to have declined by 8% in 2024; projections that it might improve in 2025 were made before the latest tariff announcements, but this seems unlikely in the current uncertain geopolitical and geoeconomic outlook.58 Figure 24. Areas affected by uncertainty Looking at the remainder of 2025, which of the following areas do you expect to be most adversely affected by global economic policy uncertainty? (select the top 3) Trade volume GDP growth Foreign direct investment Domestic capital investment Inflation Financial markets Labour markets Innovation Fiscal deficits Percent of respondents (%)70 68 62 35 27 24 5 5 3 Source: Chief Economists Survey. (2025, April). 58 United Nations Trade and Development (UNCTAD). (2025a).