27Chief Economists Outlook 3. AI unleashed The age of disruption In addition to the geopolitical and economic shifts discussed in the previous sections, the extraordinary speed of the AI revolution is a potential source of further short-term volatility as well as longer-term structural shifts in the global economy. There is significant uncertainty about AI’s impact on overall economic growth. While recent breakthroughs in AI have captured global attention62 and driven projections of a $4.8 trillion market by 2033,63 the anticipated surge in productivity and growth remains elusive.64 Moreover, despite falling costs65 and increasingly efficient AI systems, widespread adoption across industries has yet to take place. Only 45% of chief economists expect AI to become commercially disruptive this year. Figure 26. Commercial disruption of AI Looking ahead to the remainder of 2025, do you agree/disagree with the following? Share of respondents (%)Generative AI will be commercially disruptive 13 42 42 3Strongly disagree Disagree Uncertain Agree Strongly agree Source: Chief Economists Survey. (2025, April). Estimates of the growth impact that AI will have vary widely, with projections of the cumulative boost to global GDP by 2034 ranging from just 1%66 to over 20%.67 This broad range reflects widely differing views on factors such as AI exposure, innovation effects, capital deepening, adoption capabilities and other factors. Among the chief economists, 46% anticipate a relatively modest boost to global GDP of 0-5 percentage points over the next decade. A further 35% expect gains of 5-10 percentage points. While these estimates are at the conservative end of the range, an increase of this magnitude would represent a substantial uplift given the sluggish growth rates of recent years. 62 The Economist. (2025j). 63 United Nations Trade and Development (UNCTAD). (2025d). 64 The Economist. (2025k).65 Maruthavanan, T. (2025). 66 Acemoglu, D. (2025). 67 JP Morgan. (2024).

Chief Economists Outlook May 2025