Chief Economists Outlook May 2025

9Chief Economists Outlook Figure 3. Tariffs and trade Looking ahead to the remainder of 2025, do you agree/disagree with the following? Higher tariffs will lead to higher inflation Global trade volumes will increaseStrongly disagree Disagree Uncertain Agree Strongly agree 3 21 39 50 33545 32 Share of respondents (%) Source: Chief Economists Survey. (2025, April). At the time of writing, it remains unclear how tariffs will evolve, in particular when the 90-day pauses elapse. There is little doubt that recent developments highlight the vulnerability of the global economy to adverse policy shocks and that their follow- on effects can be significant. In addition to highlighting a weakening of the overall economic outlook, large majorities of the chief economists surveyed said that higher tariffs would lead to higher inflation (77%) and to stagnation or decline for global trade volumes (89%). This latter point was echoed by the World Trade Organization (WTO), which forecast that the threatened tariffs would cause global merchandise trade volumes to contract by 0.2% this year.8 Figure 4. US tariff impacts Looking at the remainder of 2025, do you expect US tariffs to cause significant economic damage? Percent of respondents (%)Yes – primarily harming the countries targeted by the tariffs Yes – primarily harming the USNo Yes – harming both the US and the countries targeted by the tariffs Yes – a broad-based drag on the global economy03 13 5332 Source: Chief Economists Survey. (2025, April). 8 World Trade Organization (WTO). (2025). (Taking into account measures in place until 14 April).