From Blind Spots to Insights 2025

Not all analysts of international business and geopolitical dynamics will agree with Dwight Eisenhower’s statement that “what is important is seldom urgent and what is urgent is seldom important.” However, reflecting on the interview responses, this distinction proves useful. Before discussing concerns about the current state of corporate geopolitical radar, it is important to recognize the significant strides forward that international businesses have made in recent years to strengthen their geopolitical capabilities. The US-China trade disputes, the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, in particular, have led to an elevated awareness of the importance of geopolitics for business, which is expected to last for the foreseeable future. The executives interviewed acknowledged that their companies are on a journey, with no illusions about the challenges involved. The respective corporate geopolitical radar of the various businesses interviewed tend to prioritize state actions that are mandatory, require immediate action and are clearly impactful. When any of these three conditions are absent, the attention given to a geopolitical factor often diminishes. Figure 2 captures this insight, identifying state acts associated with varying circumstances. Applying a restrictive compliance mindset to developing a geopolitical radar risks missing opportunities arising from industrial policy subsidies, which may be available for years, as with certain provisions in the US Inflation Reduction Act. The less transparent (or “murkier”) the state support, the greater the likelihood that significant competitive advantages for rival firms may be overlooked. In such cases, state actions may not require an urgent response but are likely to be commercially important, nonetheless. This reality demonstrates the point that successful firms are able to deploy their geopolitical radar not only to manage risks, but also to harness commercial opportunities. After more than a decade of international businesses facing events such as the US-China trade disputes, the demand and supply shocks caused by Covid-19 and the fallout from the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, the focus on mandatory, immediate and prominent actions is understandable. However, this experience-driven approach is inherently backward-looking and may inadvertently create blind spots. Furthermore, the 3.1 Distinguishing the material from the urgent 2 3 4 1 Radar weakens Immediate export ban1 Murky financial support4 Potential export ban2 IRA subsidies3Little choice Action laterAction now More choiceSalient & materialHarder to spotGeopolitical radar: better at tracking material and urgent geopolitical factors FIGURE 2 Applying a compliance mindset to developing a geopolitical radar risks missing opportunities arising from industrial policy subsidies.Note: IRA = US government’s Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. Murky financial support = non-transparent state support From Blind Spots to Insights: Enhancing Geopolitical Radar to Guide Global Business 15