From Minerals to Megawatts 2025

Page 33 of 39 · WEF_From_Minerals_to_Megawatts_2025.pdf

Conclusion This white paper set out to (1) make minerals dependencies visible across the EVs, data centres and ET&D supply chains; (2) identify where and how risks translate into delivery delays and cost inflation; and (3) offer an approach for a successful collective action agenda that downstream owners, upstream suppliers, financiers and policy-makers can execute together. Across analysis and consultations, five conclusions stand out. 1. The system is interdependent by design and exposed by concentration. All three value chains share multi-tier structures and overlapping materials. Mining is more geographically dispersed, but refining and processing are concentrated in a few hubs, making them the dominant choke points. Disruptions at these hubs – whether by export controls, power shortages, extreme weather or logistics – propagate to component factories and downstream commissioning schedules. 2. Timing, not just tonnage, is the binding constraint. Meeting 2035 demand requires a step-change in capacity, much of it still at planning or earlier stages. Mines need decades from discovery to first ore; processing plants take three to eight years to build and qualify; equipment factories ramp in one to five years. Without advanced signals and coordinated planning, even well- resourced programmes will deliver too late. 3. Risk is multi-dimensional and today’s pain points are instructive. Seven vectors recur across tiers and value chains: geopolitics and trade, market/ finance, infrastructure, resources and energy, sustainability and licence-to-operate, technology and labour and skills. Their interaction explains today’s pain points and why shocks cascade. EV makers reacted first because of learnings from the semiconductor shock, providing an approach others can adapt. 4. Supply and demand have to be managed in parallel. Resilience improves fastest by expanding supply and reducing demand exposure – approaches proven during past shocks. On the supply side, offtakes, co-financing, streamlined permitting and secondary supply expand and de-risk capacity. On the demand side, efficiency, substitution, recycling and standards lower exposure and speed up qualification. 5. Resilience is a collective endeavour. It will rely on distributed coordination across governments, industries and investors, each contributing within its scope. Regional partnerships, sectoral alliances and cross-value chain collaboration can together strengthen transparency, predictability and investment confidence. Governments play a pivotal role through predictable permitting, infrastructure enablement and targeted co-financing where markets alone under-deliver. To enable such collective progress, regular dialogue platforms, non-sensitive information-sharing tools and harmonized standards are critical foundations for success. Mineral resilience is not just about raw-material availability. It’s also about timely delivery of vehicles, data capacity and grid connections that sustain growth and the energy transition. Open, predictable trade keeps materials flowing efficiently and builds investor confidence. No region can secure this alone. Coordinated demand, predictable permitting and diversified supply can turn systemic fragility into reliability. The imperative now is to organize, sequence and execute together – using the guiding roadmap above to align time horizons across tiers, set and report shared resilience metrics, and coordinate across borders. The World Economic Forum will continue facilitating dialogue across mining, processing, manufacturing and policy, to raise awareness about the risks impacting mineral-intensive value chains and providing a space to support the incubation of coordinated actions that strengthen their resilience. From Minerals to Megawatts: Building Resilience for EVs, Data Centres and Power Grids 33
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