05001,0001,500 Africa Asia Australia & Oceania Europe North America South AmericaSeverity rating Region 2014 2024792 3182891,103 46 59235329 174147940 961“Good” vs “bad” fire Fire is a natural and essential process for many ecosystems. “Good” fire is usually smaller and lower-intensity (e.g. Indigenous cultural burning) that reduces built-up brush and fuels.26 It becomes harmful when it grows unusually large or high in severity, jeopardizing people, property and infrastructure and causing widespread tree loss that can be slow to recover.27 1.2 Regional analysis of wildfire risk In evaluating regional differences in wildfire risk, Africa and South America stand out in terms of absolute impact (larger burned area and total emissions), while North America and Europe experienced higher emissions intensity per hectare burned. Oceania and Africa show the most fire-conducive weather conditions (highest severity), while Europe has the lowest. However, more localized analysis can reveal important sub- regional patterns that are not visible at a regional level (e.g. Mediterranean hotspots within the broader Europe region). Figures 3–5 compare two example years, 2014 and 2024, to illustrate regional differences at two points in time across a 10-year interval. Figure 3 shows the severity rating (fire danger measure), Figure 4 shows the area burned, and Figure 5 shows the CO2 fire emissions. Figure 6 shows the regional population and asset exposure to wildfires. Severity rating* by region (2014 vs. 2024) FIGURE 3 Note: * Reported as weekly cumulative severity rating year-end for 2014 and 2024. Source: European Commission, Joint Research Centre. (n.d.). GWIS — Seasonal trend statistics. https://gwis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/apps/gwis.statistics/seasonaltrend. Severity rating is a measure of fire danger based on a data-transformation model of the Canadian Fire Weather Index,28 which assesses the weather’s conduciveness to wildfire ignition and spread, and quantifies the difficulty of fire control. It is computed from three global, physics-based weather/Earth-system models: European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), MeteoFrance and NASA GEOS-5. Higher values indicate more persistent or severe fire-conducive conditions. Regions have different climatological baselines, and therefore absolute values (e.g. 1,000 vs. 50) should be interpreted as relative severity across regions and years. From Wildfire Risk to Resilience: The Investment Case for Action 7

From Wildfire Risk to Resilience The Investment Case for Action 2026