Secure Liquid biofuels have lowered transport fuel import dependence by 5-15% across several net fossil fuel-importing countries. About 75% of fossil fuel production comes from a few regions (US, Middle East and Russia) which comprise less than 40% of global demand.9 This geographic concentration creates structural imbalances in the energy system, which can leave import-dependent economies exposed to supply disruptions, price volatility and geopolitical risk. Meanwhile, clean fuels are produced from resources that are more widely distributed across regions. By using organic waste, cover crops, agricultural residues and excess renewable electricity, regions can improve their self-sufficiency and diversify their energy supply, supporting more stable and competitive economies. Evidence shows that liquid biofuels have lowered transport fuel import dependence by between 5% and 15% across several net fossil fuel-importing countries. In countries including Indonesia, India, Brazil and Malaysia, their expanding use has had even larger impacts.10 Flexibility across feedstocks, infrastructure compatibility and storability can further enhance system resilience. Equitable Every $1 million invested in bio-based or synthetic fuel production typically generates 10-30 jobs, compared to 5-10 jobs created by conventional fuels. Clean fuels offer industrial growth and job opportunities. Their blending/drop-in compatibility can enable emissions reductions while making use of existing assets to lower transition costs and mitigate impacts on energy prices. For example, meeting the EU’s ambitious SAF mandates for 2030 could add up to 15% in fuel cost,11 but this translates to a more modest 3-5% increase in average ticket prices.12 Moreover, clean fuels can stimulate domestic industrial value chains and job creation, particularly in rural areas by creating new income streams for farmers. For example, every $1 million invested in bio-based or synthetic fuel production typically generates 10-30 jobs, compared to 5-10 jobs created by conventional fuels. This is driven primarily by higher job intensity in upstream feedstock production and processing.13 Sustainable Some clean fuel pathways have potential to reduce emissions by at least 50% – rising to more than 90% or even net-negative in optimal set-ups, when combined with carbon capture. Clean fuels have the potential to reduce CO2 emissions by 1.0-2.5 billion tonnes (Gt) per year by 2050, based on mid-range transition scenarios.14 They can materially reduce lifecycle GHG emissions, through blending or as substitute for fossil fuels. Some pathways have the potential to reduce emissions by at least 50% – rising to more than 90% or even net-negative in optimal set-ups, when combined with carbon capture for certain bio-based processes (see Figure 10). Some fuels can also reduce sulphur dioxide and particulate emissions, improving air quality and health outcomes.15 In addition, clean fuels can advance circularity by valorizing16 organic waste streams and incentivizing improved soil and waste management practices that mitigate methane emissions and land erosion, while supporting productive land use.17 Realizing these benefits requires robust and transparent safeguards, such as lifecycle carbon accounting with incentives for continuous improvement. This will help support a technology-open approach, based on abatement cost potential and adherence to strict non-emissions criteria, which is necessary to avoid adverse impacts from deforestation, competition with food production, loss of biodiversity or water stress. Fuelling the Future: How Business, Finance and Policy can Accelerate the Clean Fuels Market 10

Fuelling the Future 2026