Sustainability Full lifecycle carbon intensity (CI) varies significantly by and within pathways, as well as between projects using similar feedstocks and technologies. Feedstock type, crop yield and agricultural practices, emissions leakage, conversion efficiency and energy inputs are key drivers of emissions – each with different weights depending on the pathway. Under well-designed policies, most clean fuel pathways discussed have the potential to reduce emissions by at least 50% compared to conventional fuels – and in some optimal set- ups, achieving up to 90% emission reductions or even net-negative emissions (see Figure 10). For example, emissions from biomethane vary from an average of 30-40gCO2e/MJ (~50-60% reduction versus natural gas) to net-negative by capturing biomethane from animal manure, which would otherwise be emitted during natural decomposition as methane (a significantly more potent GHG than the CO2 emitted after biomethane combustion).48 Biofuel production can also be paired with carbon capture to reduce emissions. Similarly, synthetic fuels and other hydrogen derivatives have the potential to deliver 90%+ emissions reductions, provided renewable electricity is used in their manufacture and wider supply chain emissions are minimized. Most clean fuel pathways discussed have the potential to reduce emissions by at least 50% compared to conventional fuels – and in some optimal set-ups, achieving up to 90%. Lifecycle GHG emissions intensity ranges, selected clean fuel pathways FIGURE 10 Improved CI Fully optimized CI Default CI020406080100120 Blue ammoniaBioethanol (corn/ sugar cane)Biodiesel (soybean)Biodiesel (UCO/ tallow)Renewable diesel (HVO)SAF (HEF A)SAF (AtJ/GFT)Bioethanol (cellulosic)Bio- methanolBio- methaneE-SAFE- ammoniaE- methanolE- methaneLow- carbon aviation fuelSome pathways ar e net carbon negative if fully optimized and with carbon captur e solutions.20-5050-75 30-5555-70 5-1515-45 5-1515-20 5-1515-30 0-1010-30 0-1515-30 0-1010-25 0-1010-2570-7575-80 0-50-530-60 0-560-80 0-5Lifecycle GHG emissions (gCO2e/MJ) Fossil-derived Biomass-derived Renewable power-derived Jet fuel, natural gasDiesel, HFO, gasoline Grey H2 from natural gas Notes: CI = carbon intensity. Assumes synthetic fuels are produced using renewable electricity and CO2. Ranges reflect default values assigned to specific fuel types by regulatory frameworks, and certified project data for different pathways. Columns show accurate values against the y-axis, but values in captions are rounded for ease of comparison. Sources: see endnote.49 Fuelling the Future: How Business, Finance and Policy can Accelerate the Clean Fuels Market 18

Fuelling the Future 2026