Fuelling the Future 2026

Momentum is improving but remains insufficient. Annual investment in clean fuel production capacity has risen by ~30% from 2024 to 2025 and is expected to reach ~$25 billion by the end of 2025. Yet this is still a fraction of what is required.54 Meeting the demand for clean fuels implicit in current national and corporate pledges would require a fourfold increase to roughly $100 billion per year by 2030.55 The clean fuels project pipeline is expanding, with at least 12.5 EJ of new capacity targeting operation by the end of the decade; but only around 10% of projects have reached FID (see Figure 11).56 Given the typical two- to five-year construction period after FID, the share of operating capacity is unlikely to grow rapidly. Understanding the barriers preventing projects from advancing is critical to designing the solutions needed to overcome them and accelerate market growth.3.1 Investment barriers to project progress Meeting the demand for clean fuels implicit in current national and corporate pledges would require a fourfold increase to roughly $100 billion per year by 2030. Clean fuel pipeline: 90% of projects to 2030 are still pre-FID FIGURE 11 Notes: Includes projects targeted for energy use across e-fuel and key biofuels (e.g. SAF, renewable diesel) with start dates between 2025 and 2030, excluding operational projects. Post-FID includes projects that have secured FID or are in construction. Source: Bain & Company.post-FID shar e of announced clean fuel pr oject capacity typical profitability gap without policy incentivesPre-FID for 2030 operational start date (~11 exajoules capacity)(~1.5 exajoules capacity)Post-FIDClean fuel pr oject pipeline, by indicative status (Jan 2025 data for 2030 COD, by pr oject capacity)Key takeaways ~10% 30-50% Fuelling the Future: How Business, Finance and Policy can Accelerate the Clean Fuels Market 21