The overall profitability of airlines is also increasing, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). A combined net profit of $30.5 billion and a record number of passengers are expected for 2024,7 revenue is forecast to top $1 trillion for the first time in 2025, while growth forecasts up to 2050 are bullish, especially in emerging aviation markets such as China and India. Some stakeholders therefore challenge the view that SAF is either too scarce or too pricey to purchase – they claim that a weak demand signal from buyers is the reason why more SAF is not currently used. However, given the sector’s low margins (IATA expects an average of $7 net profit per passenger in 2025), there is widespread acceptance that additional investment and de- risking mechanisms for SAF are needed before airlines can show more commitment. Another challenge is that there is still a limited number of advanced SAF production technologies reaching financial investment decision worldwide, which in turn constrains the quantity of available suppliers. While investment in new HEFA capacity has continued throughout 2024, numerous projects in Europe and the US were paused or dropped during 2024 amid technical challenges. Similarly, some power-to-liquid projects were scrapped amid lack of demand or limited returns, even though the oil and gas sector distributed over $200 billion in dividends globally in 2024.8,9 Meanwhile, a couple of advanced low-carbon fuels projects went bust and some energy players exited the SAF production market to focus on potentially more profitable activities such as supply and resale. Role of corporate buyers and partnerships With this chicken-and-egg situation persisting for a number of years, several stakeholders have highlighted the role corporate buyers (i.e. not airlines) can play in unlocking progress and stepping in to support both airlines and SAF suppliers. With the latest global election cycle generating policy uncertainty (see Chapter 3.1), private-sector initiatives and strong, voluntary commitments from scope 3 buyers could be powerful tools to attract capital towards SAF projects. An increasing number of corporates, including members of the Forum’s First Movers Coalition, concluded their first procurements of SAF in 2024. It is often where some of these private sector partnerships with investors and companies are in place that SAF projects are breaking ground: for example, developers like LanzaJet, Infinium and Twelve managed to secure a combined investment of up to $1.8 billion through such partnerships during 2024. A combined net profit of $30.5 billion and a record number of passengers are expected for 2024, while revenue is forecast to top $1 trillion for the first time in 2025. While airline and corporate investments in technology are valuable, committing to SAF through long-term offtake agreements is essential for financing projects and achieving scale. These offtake agreements not only provide the financial stability needed to accelerate production of SAF, but also play a key role in the trajectory of driving down cost over time by being a catalyst in moving projects forward. Robert Schuetzle, Chief Executive Officer, Infinium Global Aviation Sustainability Outlook 2025 12