Geopolitics, tariffs and sanctions According to the executives consulted, geopolitics tops the list of non-sustainability challenges affecting aviation decarbonization progress. The Forum’s Global Risks Report 202573 also highlights geopolitics as one of the key concerns for the international community. The previous chapter highlights risks and challenges specific to the aviation sector and SAF feedstocks. This chapter addresses wider dynamics that can affect relationships and negotiations between countries, including at COP30 and the ICAO General Assembly later this year, as well as trade flows and thus aviation and cargo movements. At the time of writing in early 2025, the impacts of the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and its “America First” trade policy are being closely monitored by the aviation community. The risk of increased protectionism and escalating tariffs across the economy continues a trend already seen in 2024, when both the US (under the Biden administration) and the EU introduced a number of measures in relation to Chinese solar panels, electric vehicles and electric vehicle batteries. Experts interviewed believe that geopolitical tensions are driving insecurity on feedstock exports, while increasing the prioritization of domestic energy security agendas at a time of global uncertainty. Meanwhile, the use of incentives to accelerate domestic industrial development has led to increased scrutiny by the international community around fairness and competitiveness. For example, the EU investigated Chinese biodiesel, which imposed anti-dumping duty rates for biofuels, but left out SAF.74 Change in governments Following a “super-year for elections” across the world – including in the US, India, United Kingdom and South Africa – respondents expressed concern about changing government priorities, leading to potential U-turns on policy and regulation, as well as doubt around the longevity of incentives. While in some cases changes in government have resulted in a greater prioritization of the aviation decarbonization agenda (e.g. in the UK, according to executives interviewed), this has not necessarily been the case across all regions. This year sees the continuation of the election cycle in Australia (where the government has been increasingly supportive of sustainable aviation and fuels policy, and is hoping to host COP31), Canada, Chile, Germany and Singapore – as well as mid- term elections in Argentina. Interstate armed conflict Ongoing conflicts across the world, in particular following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, continue to have an impact on airspace closures and climate change, as well as on aviation safety. Longer routes arising from the closure of Russian airspace have led a number of carriers to pull out of Asian markets, citing longer and less attractive journeys for passengers, as well as increased fuel costs and revenue losses. The climate impact of diverting civil aircraft traffic around Russia has been quantified at 24 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent, around 14% of the total climate impact of the war in its first two years.75 At the same time, Chinese carriers that can continue to use Russian airspace have increased their presence across Europe-Asia routes. In 2024, several European carriers complained about increased competition from Chinese carriers and their growing market share – for example, Chinese carriers are now running nearly three-quarters of all flights between China and France and Germany, as well as nearly all flights between China and the United Kingdom and Italy.76 This increasing activity has prompted Western airlines to push for caps to flights to and from China, although as of February 2025 no additional restrictions have been implemented, at least in Europe.77 Air traffic restrictions and diversions have also affected the Middle East, with a number of carriers avoiding Iranian airspace and cancelling flights to Tel Aviv throughout 2024.78 Conflict developments, both in Ukraine and across other active war zones, will continue to generate a volatile and disrupted environment, with many executives not expecting airlines to resume routes until after such situations stabilize. On top of the implications of re-routing and increased competition on carriers’ offer and profitability, from a sustainability standpoint it remains to be seen whether greater penetration of extra-EU carriers in Europe may bring about other impacts in 2025: many of these long-haul routes are currently excluded from mandates and emissions trading schemes, leaving SAF use on such journeys up to the voluntary action of airlines. 3.1 Policy and geopolitical risks Geopolitical tensions are driving insecurity on feedstock exports, while increasing the prioritization of domestic energy security agendas at a time of global uncertainty. Global Aviation Sustainability Outlook 2025 29