Global Aviation Sustainability Outlook 2025

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Aviation expansion and growth As passenger numbers grow, some airports are looking to expand and new airlines are launching to capture a share of this increasing demand. The expansion of Dubai World was announced in April 2024, with the aim to operate five runways and become the largest hub in the world.93 Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia announced the construction of a new airport in Riyadh with six runways, a new $50 billion investment in the country’s airports94 and the launch of a new carrier, Riyadh Air. Asia Pacific is also looking to grow. Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA) inaugurated its third runway in November 2024.95 With cargo movements increasing as well as passenger numbers, DHL Express inaugurated new facilities at HKIA in April, with its HK$1.5 billion fully automated sorting system.96 In North America, Toronto Pearson Airport unveiled a renovation plan to increase capacity.97 In early 2025, the UK government announced its backing for a major expansion at London Heathrow,98 as well as the start of restructuring work at London Stansted, backed by a £1.1 billion investment from the government.99 The construction of a new terminal at Singapore Changi Airport is also expected to start later this year,100 while Melbourne Airport announced plans for a major expansion, as airlines launch new routes and connectivity to Australia is expected to increase in the year ahead.101,102 On the back of positive growth forecasts and air travel expansion announcements, 2024 also saw greater debate on how the growth of the sector can be compatible with its climate commitments. This was the focus of a paper commissioned by the European Union Joint Research Centre, published in December 2024, which predicted that aviation’s continuing growth has set it on course to triple CO2 emissions by 2050. The paper concluded that technological improvements will need to be complemented by a place-based approach to aviation decarbonization as well as communication strategies to encourage less energy-intensive travel habits.103 Some of the aviation and transport sector stakeholders interviewed for the World Economic Forum’s January 2025 white paper Intelligent Transport, Greener Future: AI as a Catalyst to Decarbonize Global Logistics, identified solutions powered by artificial intelligence (AI) as a potential avenue to make the transport sector both greener and more efficient, while supporting business growth.104 As aviation looks to expand, the applications of AI across the sector are wide-ranging, from more seamless management of passenger flows within the airport to greater efficiency and potentially additional carbon savings during operations. As passenger traffic in aviation grows, so are airports expanding to capture this demand. As a result, airports are increasingly using AI to improve passenger experience and operational efficiency. At Industry.AI we connect hundreds of cameras across the airport and use advanced deep-tech vision AI to improve passenger flows. In addition, AI is being used to improve sustainability and emissions by optimizing the entire power and air-conditioning plant at airports. Tejpreet S. Chopra, President & Chief Executive Officer, Industry.AI (BLP Group) Some of the Airports of Tomorrow executives interviewed for this report were enthusiastic about AI as a topic of growing interest for 2025, both as a means to achieve decarbonization and to improve operations and revenue. While AI may have not yet achieved the same level of popularity as in other sectors, many stakeholders consulted were confident this will change throughout the year, with increased focus at the upcoming Dubai Airshow in November 2025. Climate resilience As aviation grows and airports expand, increasing scrutiny is being focused on the environmental footprint of materials and construction processes, as well as on the overall compatibility of growth and sustainability. This is happening at a time when severe climate-driven events are increasingly impacting aviation, highlighting the rise of climate adaptation and resilience as a priority topic for some of the executives interviewed, in particular for airports. Following the heaviest rainfall on record in April 2024, flooding in Dubai and its impact on airport operations hit the headlines,105 but there have been several other airports and airlines impacted by climate change, such as Porto Alegre in Brazil in August 2024.106 A study published by ACI Latin America and Caribbean in 2024 found that over 90% of airports interviewed had experienced higher temperatures and rainfall, although only half of them have carried out or expect to complete a climate change risk assessment.107 This highlights the limited visibility of climate resilience in airport planning, despite its immediate consequences on operations, as well as the need for greater guidance. In this context, ACI Europe and EUROCONTROL published a short briefing in November 2024 highlighting steps aviation stakeholders can take to prepare for climate disruptions.108 Some Airports of Tomorrow stakeholders have started to undertake action to bolster climate resilience. These include Ferrovial, which is raising the floor of its new JFK Terminal 1 buildings to mitigate flooding and Sofia Airport’s use of heat-resistant materials for resurfacing.109 As severe weather events intensify, airlines are also having to adapt their operations, in particular Global Aviation Sustainability Outlook 2025 32
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