Top-10 risks affecting aviation decarbonization progress TABLE 1 Aviation-specific risks 1Availability and cost of SAF are the biggest challenges for aviation decarbonization in 2025. Airlines need to commit to long-term SAF offtake agreements but de-risking mechanisms are vital as the risks of advanced SAF production technologies and varying regional policies pose significant hurdles. More corporate involvement and favourable policies are essential to attract capital and support SAF projects globally. 2Alignment of SAF policies across regions and longevity of subsidies are crucial for encouraging investment and ensuring consistent SAF adoption across regions. In 2024, Asia Pacific emerged as a key market: several countries introduced supportive policies, while China is expected to unveil detailed SAF policies this year. Brazil and Chile have established national SAF programmes and partnerships. Oman and Saudi Arabia are formulating strategies for SAF development. Europe has strong SAF policies but faces competition from emerging markets with competitive feedstock advantages. In the US, the future of SAF incentives remains uncertain due to political changes. Patchy policy frameworks and varying sustainability standards pose challenges: consistent, aligned policies are needed to support global adoption of SAF and ensure progress towards decarbonization. 3Implementation of CORSIA: effective implementation of ICAO’s Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) is essential for standardizing carbon reduction efforts and ensuring global compliance. Despite positive momentum, with more countries joining and new carbon credit programmes approved, challenges remain due to non-participation of major countries. 4Traceability of sustainability criteria for SAF feedstocks: as aviation’s reliance on SAF increases, scrutiny on the sustainability credentials of feedstocks will intensify. Concerns around land-use change, deforestation, poor agricultural practices, food security and biodiversity impacts have led to regulatory restrictions and bans on certain biofuels. Improved transparency and research, along with consistent sustainability standards, are essential to address these risks and support the development of alternative SAF production pathways. 5Effectiveness of carbon pricing and emissions trading schemes: airlines will need to navigate both CORSIA and local emission trading schemes, with varying regional policies and the inclusion of non-CO2 emissions adding complexity and potential compliance costs.Wider risks 1Geopolitics is the top non-sustainability challenge affecting progress on decarbonizing aviation. The withdrawal of the US from the Paris Agreement in early 2025 and the “America First” trade policy are being closely monitored by the aviation community, as increasing protectionism and tariffs pose significant risks. Geopolitical tensions are destabilizing feedstock exports and fuelling domestic energy security concerns. International scrutiny on fairness and competitiveness adds to the complex dynamics at play. 2Bankability and attractiveness of the aviation sector for investors: aviation is not seen as a priority sector for investment by the financial community, despite needing significant capital to meet decarbonization goals. Multiple aviation technologies (e.g. SAF, hydrogen, eVTOLs) are looking to secure capital, with the first large investments in SAF in 2024 and increasing momentum for eVTOLs. Technology challenges and regulatory pressures persist, influencing whether and how investments in aviation decarbonization technologies are being made and perceived by the financial community. 3Economic downturn and inflation: despite easing inflationary pressures and encouraging profitability figures, the global economic outlook remains a concern for aviation executives, particularly in emerging markets. Rising costs in labour, supply chain bottlenecks and regulatory uncertainty are impacting profitability and affecting the sector’s focus on the net-zero agenda. 4Change in governments: following a year of “super elections”, stakeholders are concerned about changing government priorities, policy U-turns and the longevity of incentives that could impact aviation decarbonization. Some countries, like the United Kingdom, have accelerated towards sustainable aviation, but this is not the global trend. Elections this year in Australia, Canada, Germany, Singapore and Latin America could further influence aviation policies. 5Competing priorities: as the sector looks to grow further in terms of passenger numbers, connectivity and profitability, the decarbonization agenda faces challenges to ensure aviation’s expansion can be sustainable and can attract the capital needed to scale-up new technology and meet decarbonization goals, in an increasingly competing environment. Profitability, growth, climate resilience and consumer experience improvements are critical areas of focus for Airports of Tomorrow stakeholders, affecting how aviation executives see and prioritize the decarbonization agenda across regions. Note: These risks are based on responses to the survey of aviation executives conducted for this report. Global Aviation Sustainability Outlook 2025 6