Policy and geopolitical trends3 Geopolitics impacted trade in SAF feedstocks and aircraft orders, although international collaboration on aviation and SAF policy support remained strong. Among the main themes characterizing 2025, geopolitics inevitably made a critical impact on aviation and, in turn, its quest to decarbonize. An increased focus on energy security may have contributed to the acceleration of SAF policy development globally, although governments’ willingness to scale up domestic SAF industries resulted in inconsistent approaches to regulation. Meanwhile, industrial policy and tariffs affected feedstock flows and trades across countries. On a positive note, however, the latest ICAO Assembly saw strong collaboration across states, unlike in other sectors. Looking ahead, it is likely that global trade will continue to be affected by geopolitical rivalries – especially given that the Forum’s Global Risks Report 2026 tops its list of short-term risks with “geoeconomic competition”.61 Decarbonization efforts may have received an unexpected boost from energy security and self- sufficiency considerations. The IEA found that countries, especially many fuel-importing ones, are increasingly prioritizing energy security and affordability as they lean towards renewable and geographically proximate solutions.62 Key policy developments in 2025 reinforce this view. For example: –The EU’s Sustainable Transport Investment Plan (see below, section 3.2) states that investing in low-carbon fuels for transportation sectors, including aviation, is “crucial”, not only for industrial decarbonization, but also to boost Europe’s energy security by reducing its dependence on fossil fuel imports.63 –In the US, SAF has been similarly linked to broader energy and industrial strategy. The SAF Grand Challenge launched by the previous administration has been maintained by the current government. This is now explicitly framed by the US Department of Energy as an initiative supporting US energy dominance.64 3.1 Energy security could boost fossil-free fuels With the rising global need for energy security, diversifying fuel sources has become increasingly important. While existing policies are helping to create a global SAF market, SAF supply has been well below 1% of global jet fuel/kerosene consumption in recent years, falling short of expectations and underscoring the need for further policy support to create clear long-term demand signals. At Topsoe, we are fully committed to advancing SAF, including e-SAF, to decarbonize aviation. The technologies and solutions are ready and scalable. Further collaboration across industry, governments and financiers is needed to de- risk, scale and decarbonize. Elena Scaltritti, President and Chief Executive Officer, Topsoe Global Aviation Sustainability Outlook 2026 21