such as staff shortages, that have weighed down performance at major hubs. Against this backdrop, airline passenger traffic is projected to grow by just 1.5% in 2026 after near-stagnation in 2025. This regional divergence also underpins a different passenger mix emerging: in faster-growing regions, younger demographics and expanding middle classes are expected to drive strong demand for affordable and first-time flyers, while more mature markets continue to sustain higher shares of premium and business traffic, with more stable demand patterns. These behavioural differences are reflected in long-term passenger forecasts and will continue to drive the ongoing rebound of premium class travel across major markets.132 The economics around air passenger traffic affect not only infrastructure and capacity investment decisions, but also the feasibility and sequencing of decarbonization efforts. Where demand is more sensitive to price increases, the willingness and ability to pay a green premium (e.g. for SAF blends, carbon charges or higher fares linked to decarbonization) may be weaker, even as traffic grows faster. Aligning traffic growth with climate goals will require region- tailored approaches, so that fast-growing markets are not locked into high-emissions pathways simply because passengers and carriers cannot absorb higher near-term green costs. Beyond the impact of the rising costs of decarbonization on passengers, the reality of an expanding aviation market continues to fuel industry, civil society and academic debate on the feasibility of growing and decarbonizing aviation simultaneously.133 In the UK, plans to reduce emissions via SAF investment have contributed to the government’s approval for expansion plans at London’s Heathrow and Gatwick airports, announced in 2025.134 As the sector grows, stakeholders expect an increased focus on technology and efficiency gains, as well as air traffic modernization and slot reforms. For example, a UK government report published in December 2025 highlighted the potential for near- term carbon savings through operational “quick wins”, noting that CO2 emissions per passenger in 2019 were already around 22% lower than in 1990, despite strong traffic growth. A pipeline of operational interventions across aircraft operations, airspace management and airport processes could deliver further reductions.135 In parallel, United Airlines’ investment in blended wing body aircraft is expected to reduce fuel burn per passenger mile by 50%.136 Together, these developments illustrate how economic conditions, capacity constraints and technological choices are increasingly shaping the context in which aviation decarbonization decisions are made.Air cargo demand Air cargo ended 2025 on a strong note despite ongoing trade volatility. In November 2025, cargo demand grew 5.5% year-on-year, with international volumes up 6.9%. Capacity increased by 4.7% year-on-year,137 helping to support stable yields. As with passenger traffic, growth remained uneven across regions, with strong demand in emerging markets and growth in some Middle East countries offsetting weaker performance in the Americas, where volumes continued to adjust to the new US tariff regime. Cargo growth has been shaped by trade re- routing, evolving e-commerce rules and changes in customs regimes, leading to more concentrated flows along specific corridors. While global goods trade grew by around 2% year-on-year138 and manufacturing activity strengthened towards the end of 2025, higher jet fuel prices and geopolitical uncertainty added cost pressures across the value chain. For airports, this means that overall cargo volumes remain resilient, but growth is uneven and increasingly concentrated at selected hubs, complicating revenue planning and capacity allocation amid elevated policy uncertainty. In many cases, recent disruptions have resulted in lasting shifts in cargo routing and hub roles rather than temporary dislocation. From a sustainability perspective, uneven cargo growth concentrates emissions and operational pressures at specific airports, reinforcing the need for greater efficiency, optimized capacity use and cleaner ground and flight operations. This concentration also creates an opportunity to develop “green corridors”, where coordinated actions across airports, ports, airlines, integrators and fuel suppliers can accelerate the deployment of low-carbon solutions along key trade routes. Executives interviewed for this report predicted that an emerging area for collaboration and discussion in 2026 will be the development of interconnected airport-port fuel infrastructure, which offers the potential to establish clean fuel corridors across transport modes, and to facilitate the development of green logistics offerings and more integrated, sustainable cargo and passenger propositions. Major integrators are beginning to respond: DHL and FedEx have announced large SAF commitments,139 aiming to ensure that at least 30% of their jet fuel use is SAF by 2030 at key cargo hubs. In parallel, cross-modal initiatives such as the Rotterdam-Singapore Green Corridor140 illustrate how ports and airports can collaborate on shared clean fuel infrastructure,141 including hydrogen and biofuels for both aviation and shipping. These initiatives show how leading cargo operators are seeking to decouple growth from emissions. Global Aviation Sustainability Outlook 2026 34