SAF vs jet kerosene prices, California ($/mt) FIGURE 8 Notes: The graph shows the price comparison, measured in US dollars per metric tonne ($/mt), between neat SAF – HEFA-SPK (HEFA synthetic paraffinic kerosene) – delivered in California, US by railcar or barge, and conventional jet fuel (kerosene) delivered by pipeline in Los Angeles, California. “Spread” = difference between prices for neat SAF and jet kerosene, also known as the “green premium”. “Credit inclusive” means that the graph takes into consideration tax incentives provided by the Low Carbon Fuels Standard (LCFS). Source: S&P Global Energy Platts, 2026.Neat SAF Califor nia, cr edit inclusive Jet ker osene Los Angeles pipeline Spread05001,0001,5002,0002,500 May 25 Jun 25 Jul 25 Aug 25 Sep 25 Oct 25 Nov 25 Jan 26 Dec 26US dollars/metric tonne ($/mt)SAF Califor nia vs Jet ker osene Los Angeles pipeline ($/mt) Stakeholders interviewed for this report and wider industry position papers provide diverging views on the potential causes behind SAF’s increasing market prices in late 2025. IATA claimed that suppliers subject to mandates introduced “compliance fees” that artificially inflated prices.153 Others attributed these price hikes to feedstock constraints and trade disruptions. In addition, as deadlines to meet 2025 mandate targets loomed in the second part of the year and some European refineries underwent maintenance, SAF prices climbed due to higher demand. According to S&P Global Energy Platts, it is likely that a combination of all these factors, alongside supply-demand dynamics, have contributed to SAF price volatility. US policy uncertainty around 45Z credits after the new US government took over, as well as the launch of European SAF mandates, likely resulted in weaker market conditions in the first half of the year, exacerbated by lower-than-usual jet fuel prices caused by tariff debates. Data from S&P Global Energy Platts shows a clear decrease in SAF prices during January and February 2026 and some commentators expect prices to continue easing during 2026.154 Reasons for the price drop include lower demand and greater SAF availability, including from China after the release of new export permits. Nevertheless, price volatility remains and many stakeholders forecast uncertainty well into the current year. This is one of the challenges often raised by SAF offtakers, especially corporate buyers, who struggle to navigate future prices as part of their negotiations. Global Aviation Sustainability Outlook 2026 39