Key collaboration trends in 2025 Increasing interest in collective procurement: –In May, the Sustainable Aviation Buyers Alliance launched SAFc Connect, a new platform to connect buyers and sellers of SAF certificates.166 –In October, 10 companies launched a partnership comprising global airlines and corporate partners to acquire 20,000 tonnes of SAF via book-and-claim.167 Greater collaboration between cargo players: –DHL announced several offtake agreement partnerships, including: –240,000 tonnes of SAF over three years to use at Los Angeles International Airport, produced by Phillips 66.168 –2,400 tonnes of SAF supplied by Cathay Pacific for flights from Seoul, Tokyo and Singapore.169 –A renewed collaboration with Air France- KLM Martinair Cargo to develop book-and- claim solutions for air freight.170 –FedEx collaborated with World Fuel Services to supply 15,000 tonnes of SAF at major hubs including Dallas-Fort Worth and New York JFK, delivered as a minimum 30% blend.171 –These developments build on earlier SAF use at Los Angeles, Chicago-O’Hare and Miami, underscoring how airport-based partnerships are helping increase SAF uptake in air cargo operations. Equity investment in SAF from airlines: –In September, the oneworld alliance and Breakthrough Energy Ventures launched a $150 million fund to commercialize SAF technologies.172 –In October, Cathay Pacific and Airbus announced a joint investment agreement of up to $70 million to accelerate SAF production in Asia.173 Airlines and corporates have not been the only stakeholders looking into SAF prices and competitiveness. Mergers of fuel players and acquisitions accelerated during 2025 and early 2026, particularly in Europe. Among the latest announcements, Moeve and Galp have been exploring a non-binding agreement to combine refining and retail activities, with a focus on mobility, low-carbon fuels and transformation of existing assets into integrated multi-energy hubs,174 while VARO Energy completed the acquisition of Preem, achieving a combined capacity of 1.3 million tonnes of renewable fuel production per year – the second-largest in Europe and one of the top six in the world.175 Market commentators expect such transactions to strengthen players’ ability to scale up clean fuel production, including co-processed fuel,176 SAF and green hydrogen for aviation, while leveraging wider and more integrated infrastructure and distribution networks. This market consolidation could also reflect an uncertain outlook for conventional fuel refining activity – especially in Europe, where refining capacity is expected to shrink by up to 30% over the next 10 years, because of more volatile margins as well as the increasing share of alternative energies.177 The global picture remains uncertain. Some analysts expect refining capacity to reduce further, despite growing oil demand.178 Others predict growth in overall refining volumes, especially in the Middle East, China and India,179 as well as globally on the back of geopolitical shifts that have seen renewed interest in fossil fuels. According to the IEA, the past year demonstrated that geopolitical instability could co-exist with subdued oil prices, reflecting a large surplus of supply over demand.180 However, possible escalations of inter-state conflict in 2026 could propel prices on an exponential upwards trajectory, widening the spread between conventional jet fuel and SAF, as well as affecting airlines’ fuel-hedging strategies. Changes in refining activities and oil trends have prompted The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies to investigate the implications on European fuel readiness, vulnerability and resilience, as well as the opportunities that a multi-fuel future can bring to the defence industry.181 Ongoing tensions and conflicts suggest that sustainability (and therefore any increased use of SAF and new fuels by defence actors) remains a lower priority for the military than it was in the past. However, trials and exploration of sustainable aviation technology by the military – spearheaded by the Royal Air Force in the UK in the last couple of years182 – are expected to continue, presenting governments with an opportunity to strengthen their role as bankable offtakers of SAF.4.5 Fuel refining activity, oil markets and overall implications Market consolidation could reflect an uncertain outlook for conventional fuel refining activity – especially in Europe, where refining capacity is expected to shrink by up to 30% over the next 10 years. Global Aviation Sustainability Outlook 2026 44