Scope This Appendix estimates potential SAF demand scenarios in 2040 by translating national blending targets into volumetric fuel demand and comparing this to the currently announced production capacity. The assessment covers the 16 countries that have stated SAF targets or ambitions between 2025 and 2050, plus the European Union’s ReFuelEU Aviation target. The analysis excludes airline-specific SAF commitments, corporate commitments or demand for SAF driven by CORSIA. It does not consider the announcement of future mandates, nor does it consider countries which have not yet introduced a mandate, unless evidence suggests policy is under development. As a result, there is uncertainty to all SAF demand scenarios presented here. The purpose is to show the scale of demand implied by current policy frameworks and not to forecast outcomes in 2040. Aviation and jet fuel demand assumptions in 2040 SAF demand is calculated as a share of total jet fuel demand. Aviation demand growth reflects the expectation that continued post-pandemic increases in passenger kilometres will be driven by rising global wealth. SAF blending targets across markets Announced country blending targets reflect the proportion of jet fuel expected or mandated to come from non-fossil-based fuels, or planned SAF plant capacity targets as a percentage of total jet fuel consumption when there are only supply targets in place (as in the US). Not all announced targets are the same. They can be mandatory or voluntary, enshrined in law or simply proposed. They do not carry the same likelihood of implementation; some of them apply only to 2030, while others extend to 2050 and beyond. Where targets have been kept flat or extended over their current end-date, aviation growth drives greater SAF volumes even where blending percentages are fixed. Scenario design Across the three scenarios, blending assumptions vary by the country grouping, representing the difference in political intent and credibility. Importantly, these scenarios do not represent forecasts for SAF uptake, instead they are used to illustrate the strength of demand and the variance in possible outcome from this. A breakdown of blending rates used in this analysis is provided in Table 3. Supply and feedstock assessment The project pipeline is live and ever-changing as projects are cancelled and new projects are announced. The reference points provided from the present view in January 2026 are used as an illustrative contextual tool to compare alternative fuel supply and demand as likely today. The project pipeline is also expected to change based on the demonstration of construction and operational success. Replicability of certain SAF pathways and plants may influence developers and new project announcements after 2030. The impact this would have on the make-up of the pipeline would also be influenced by political support and the 2030 SAF blending targets being met. Feedstock analysis focuses on the use of used cooking oil for HEFA technology to illustrate the relationship between feedstock supply and fuel demand. BNEF estimates that there will be around 105 million tonnes of used cooking oil from residential and domestic use available in 2040. This has the potential to produce 52.5 million tonnes of SAF, assuming a 50% conversion rate and a 100% recovery rate. However, only 16% of used cooking oil is currently being recovered globally, with the potential to make 8.6 million tonnes of SAF. Other feedstock sources such as tallow and distillers’ corn oil, as well as oils from rapeseed, palm and soybean, can raise the upper bound on potential supply. Methodology for Appendix 1: A longer-term look at SAF demand Global Aviation Sustainability Outlook 2026 57