Global Aviation Sustainability Outlook 2026

Page 8 of 71 · WEF_Global_Aviation_Sustainability_Outlook_2026.pdf

Executive summary In 2025, the aviation sector maintained its commitment to net-zero carbon emissions despite an increasingly complex operating environment. While ambition and policy attention remained strong, the year highlighted persistent structural challenges related to fuel prices, policy stability, trade dynamics and geopolitical disruption. Progress continued, but unevenly, prompting many in the industry to explore how aspirational targets can be translated into more pragmatic, economically viable and resilient decarbonization pathways. Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) remains the cornerstone of aviation’s decarbonization strategy. Policy momentum increased across regions in 2025, with mandates kicking off, new incentives and strategic roadmaps aimed at accelerating SAF deployment. Several regions are positioning themselves as future SAF hubs, seeking to capture industrial development and energy security benefits. However, some stakeholders highlighted concerns around the possibility to fulfil mandates post-2030. This is because, while investment in SAF production expanded, it remains constrained by uncertainty around long-term offtake, price evolution and policy stability. Changes or potential future adjustments to mandates, tax credits, feedstock eligibility and life-cycle emissions methodologies in key markets risk complicating investment decisions. For capital-intensive technologies with long lead times, regulatory predictability remains critical to unlocking private investment and enabling scale. Biofuel supply chains also proved vulnerable to trade policy shifts, export controls and geopolitical tensions. Disruptions to feedstock flows, particularly used cooking oil, illustrated how trade disputes can rapidly affect SAF availability and pricing. These developments reinforce the need to diversify feedstocks, production pathways and geographies to improve resilience and reduce exposure to external shocks, highlighting the increasingly important links between clean fuels, energy resilience and energy security. Trade and industrial policy developments last year further shaped the operating environment for aviation. ICAO remained a focal point in bilateral and multilateral negotiations, reflecting the strategic importance of aviation. However, a more complex trade landscape with countries strengthening their domestic manufacturing capacity (including aircraft production, fuels and energy infrastructure) is reshaping competitive dynamics and influencing long-term fleet and infrastructure planning across regions. Despite these headwinds, 2025 was characterized by sustained industry engagement and willingness to collaborate. Support for cleaner aviation remains strong within industry and governments, and few players expect the sector to retreat from its overarching net-zero ambition at this stage. Instead, attention is shifting towards adjusting the pathway to reflect market realities, prioritize cost-effective solutions and remove practical bottlenecks. As the sector enters 2026, a more pragmatic approach to sustainability is set to dominate industry discussions. Key priorities include identifying the most cost-effective decarbonization pathways, strengthening energy and supply-chain resilience, improving policy coordination, and leveraging digitalization and artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance efficiency. Converting ambition into delivery will require greater public-private collaboration on these topics, as well as regulatory stability and coordinated action across regions to accelerate progress at scale.Aviation entered 2026 with strong net- zero ambition but growing recognition that delivery requires pragmatic, stable policies and resilient supply chains. Global Aviation Sustainability Outlook 2026 8
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