Global Economic Futures Competitiveness in 2030 2025

2 Current levels of uncertainty, complexity and volatility in the global economy represent a challenge for traditional analytics and forecasting methods. In an environment like this, foresight methods stand out as a way of improving decision-making. The scenarios presented in this chapter are designed to help decision-makers understand and anticipate the trends, vulnerabilities and opportunities associated with a range of alternative futures. The four exploratory scenarios show how possible futures for competitiveness – and the assumptions underpinning them – might play out across economies and sectors. The purpose is not to predict the future or eliminate uncertainty but to provide a framework for analysis and stress-testing of strategic assumptions and to spur strategies that will help leaders prepare for and harness change. The framework used to design the scenarios starts with identifying key trends and drivers shaping the future of competitiveness (see Chapter 1) and zeroing in on the interaction of two particularly high- uncertainty and high-impact drivers – geopolitics and business regulation. More specifically, the scenarios approach competitiveness through the lens of potential increases or decreases in geopolitical volatility and regulatory stringency. Geopolitical volatility: Geopolitical factors have long reshaped global competition – for example, by restructuring trade and investment flows and redefining international partnerships and policy priorities. In the current context, accelerating fragmentation and renewed strategic rivalries make these dynamics particularly consequential. Key questions that will shape the future geopolitical environment include: –Will major geopolitical flashpoints escalate, and what role will businesses play in shaping geopolitical fault lines? –How will countries balance strategic security with economic openness and cooperation? –Will multilateral institutions preserve their role in cooperation on global challenges at a time of heightened economic and political competition? –How will other global developments – including technology, social polarization, misinformation and disinformation, climate change and resource access – affect global cooperation and competition? Regulatory stringency: Business regulation is a key structural determinant of efficiency and competitiveness. While “smart regulations” can be transformative, excessive tightening of regulations can be a major chokepoint for growth, innovation and economic activity. The outlook remains uncertain, shaped by a complex dynamic between governments looking to play a more proactive role in the economy and rising deregulatory rhetoric in major economies. Key questions that will shape the future business regulatory environment include: –Will regulatory frameworks enable or stifle innovation, growth and investments? –How will consumer sentiment and corporate responsibility influence regulatory landscape and priorities? –How will governments balance the need for competitiveness with the urgency of progress on environmental and social challenges? –Will national and global regulations adapt to emerging trends (e.g. AI, crypto, quantum, biotechnology, demographic, etc.), and how quickly? 2.1 FrameworkScenarios The aim of these scenarios is not to predict the future but to provide a framework for analysing and stress-testing risks and strategic assumptions. The scenarios presented in this chapter are designed to help decision-makers understand and anticipate the trends, vulnerabilities and opportunities associated with a range of alternative futures. Global Economic Futures: Competitiveness in 2030 12