Global Economic Futures Competitiveness in 2030 2025

Executive summary The global economic landscape is fraught with uncertainty. Geopolitical rifts are widening, and policy-makers face mounting trade-offs between competing national and global priorities at a time of tightening fiscal space and a structural slowdown in productivity. In this context, competitiveness has returned to the top of the agenda, with countries and regions pushing for accelerated innovation, reform, re-skilling and investment to revive faster growth and bolster resilience. Key trends shaping future competitiveness While there are many drivers that will help shape the future of competitiveness, rapid developments in geopolitics, business regulations, technology and talent are set to play a particularly important role. Competitiveness has long been linked to global integration. The compounding crises of recent years have altered this equation, with strategic agility and resilience becoming as crucial as openness and efficiency. Geopolitical strategy has become a key business competency, and about one-third of employers globally expect geopolitical division and conflict to be a key driver of business transformation by 2030.1 Regulations will be a critical factor in mitigating or exacerbating emerging geopolitical, economic, societal and technological risks that threaten to derail competitiveness. While “smart regulations” can be transformative, excessive tightening of regulations can be a major chokepoint for growth, innovation and resilience. How governments strike a balance between openness and protectionism, and how they balance shielding the public interest and accelerating business dynamism, will be defining factors for the future of competitiveness. Four scenarios for competitiveness in 2030 Scenario analysis offers a lens to help decision- makers understand and anticipate trends, stress- test strategic assumptions and spur strategies for mitigating risks and maximizing opportunities across alternative futures. The analysis in this paper approaches competitiveness by zeroing in on two high-uncertainty and high-impact drivers – geopolitical volatility and stringency of business regulations. Their interaction results in the following four futures: 1 Fortress Economics: A world of protectionist competition shaped by stringent regulations and geopolitical instability. The global economy is increasingly shaped by strategic insulation, uncertain alliances and the weaponization of resources, rules and policy tools. 2 Negotiated Order: Geopolitical stability and stronger regulatory oversight create a more predictable business environment. Competitiveness is less restricted by strategic alliances and is increasingly shaped by the ability to navigate and shape regulations, cross-border regulatory arbitrage and long- term investments and strategies. 3 Survival of the Fastest: Looser regulations and geopolitical instability create a volatile, opportunistic and high-stakes environment. Lack of institutional safeguards, intensification of strategic competition, fractured markets and compliance gaps drive a “race to the bottom”. 4 Fluid Order: Geopolitical stability and reduced regulatory barriers enable rapid innovation, economic dynamism and open competition, halting the growth slowdown of recent decades. Lower safeguards and uneven distribution of benefits, however, eventually erode prosperity and convergence.The future of competitiveness depends not just on economic fundamentals but on the ability to navigate an increasingly complex and fractured international landscape. Global Economic Futures: Competitiveness in 2030 4