Global Economic Futures Productivity in 2030 2025

Executive summary Productivity has historically been a critical driver of global growth, increasing living standards and economic dynamism. However, productivity growth has come to a virtual standstill in recent decades, and more than half of the deceleration of global growth since 2008 can be attributed to this slowdown. Key trends shaping future productivity There is little consensus on the pace of productivity growth in the coming years, but many trends will influence it, including technology, skills, labour markets, demographics, finance, regulation, infrastructure and geoeconomics. For example, the commercialization of disruptive technologies has the potential to transform productivity, although the rate of adoption and level of impact remain uncertain. In the case of artificial intelligence (AI), business executives in high-income economies rate the productivity-boosting use of the technology nearly 40% higher than their peers in low-income economies. Sectorally, they expect AI to be harnessed the most in information and technology services, financial services and energy technology in the coming years. Human capital development will also be critical to reversing the productivity slowdown, not least because of its important role in unlocking technological gains. Nearly half of global business executives cite a lack of workforce skills and visionary leadership as the primary obstacles to AI adoption. Four scenarios for productivity in 2030 Scenario analysis offers a structured process for exploring, understanding and navigating uncertainty. The purpose of this analysis is not to predict where the world will be in 2030, but to encourage decision-makers to think critically, creatively and purposefully about the future. Looking at the interaction of potential acceleration and slowdown on two key productivity drivers – technology and human capital – results in the following four futures: 1 Productivity Leap: A virtuous circle between widespread disruptive innovation and rapid human capital development leads to significant and broad-based productivity gains and a marked improvement in living standards. 2 Automation Overload: Technological advancements outpace human capital development, leading to a “winner-takes-all” dynamic and an economy characterized by increased concentration of wealth and power. Productivity gaps widen between leading and lagging firms, sectors and regions. 3 Human Advantage: Human capital development outpaces technological advancement, centring economic activity on people. Productivity growth is slow and uneven, driven more by creative use of existing technologies than breakthroughs. Productivity gains hinge on the ability to attract talent that can maximize the potential of technology. 4 Productivity Drought: A simultaneous slowdown in technological innovation and human capital development stalls productivity growth. Economies struggle to sustain previous levels of prosperity, leading to stagnation in living standards and socioeconomic progress.The future of productivity – central to economic growth and living standards – will be shaped by technology, human capital and adaptive business models. Global Economic Futures: Productivity in 2030 4