Such a global fragmentation scenario will weaken the kind of multilateral collaboration required in many fields. For example, coordinating regulatory efforts and mobilizing the vast financial resources needed for the green transition will become much more difficult. Technological innovations that might make a difference towards greening economies will face more impediments to being shared across borders and scaled globally. Other areas where deeper global collaboration is badly needed, such as global health, energy or infrastructure, will also be likely to see slowdowns or reversals in progress. This will leave the world less well prepared for the next global pandemic, for example, while urgent public health and broader humanitarian issues will slip even further down the global agenda. Contagion from trade disruptions could spill over into food insecurity, too. Some large cities in Sub- Saharan Africa that are reliant on global commodity markets for their food supply are particularly at risk. Greater economic uncertainty The World Economic Forum’s September 2024 Chief Economists Outlook found that most of the chief economists surveyed (54%) expect the condition of the global economy to remain unchanged over the next year, but four times as many expect conditions to weaken (37%) rather than to strengthen (9%).28 This outlook aligns closely with the latest IMF forecast, which has economic growth stable at 3.2% annually in 2024 and 2025.29 Even without accounting for the potential impacts of downside risks, this growth rate is tepid compared to the long-term average growth rate of 3.8% from 2000-2019.30 The IMF notes rising risks to the economy posed by conflict escalation, tariffs and trade policy uncertainty, lower migration, and the tightening of global financial conditions.31 The latter could pose a challenge to financial stability given that valuations are elevated in several asset classes and the amount of leverage used by financial institutions is significant.32 The rapid growth in the private credit market is one area to monitor.33 More generally, both government and private-sector debt levels continue to rise globally.34 There have been early signs that fiscal concerns could re-emerge over the next two years as markets will face a high volume of sovereign debt supply.35 Globally, Economic downturn tops the EOS global risk ranking in the next two years. This risk ranks first in five regions: Latin America and the Caribbean, Northern America, Oceania, South- National risk perceptions: Economic downturn (e.g. recession, stagnation) FIGURE 1.19 Source World Economic Forum Executive Opinion Survey 2024.Executive Opinion Survey rank of national risks from the question “Which ﬁve risks are the most likely to pose the biggest threat to your country in the next two years?” 1st5th10th15th18thRank Global Risks Report 2025 31