the heightened frequency or intensity of these risks over the course of the 10-year horizon (Figure 2.1). Environmental and, to a lesser degree, technological risks dominate the long-term global risks landscape according to the GRPS. In fact, nearly all environmental risks are included in the top 10 (Figure 2.2). Extreme weather events are anticipated to become even more severe, with the risk ranked first over the next decade for the second year running. Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse ranks #2, up from #3 last year and with a significant deterioration compared to its two-year ranking (#21). Critical change to Earth systems at #3, Natural resource shortages at #4 and Pollution at #10 complete the very bleak outlook for environmental risks.Technological risks fare little better than environmental risks over the next 10 years. Adverse outcomes of AI technologies follows Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse as one of the risks expected to increase in severity the most from the two-year to the 10-year timeframe, ranking #6 on the 10-year risk outlook compared to #31 on the two-year risk outlook. Societal risks round out the top 10 on the 10-year horizon. Inequality (wealth, income) stands at #7, followed by Societal polarization at #8. This is an important pair of risks to watch, given how related they can be to bouts of social instability, and to both domestic political and geostrategic instability. In super-ageing societies, such as Japan, South Global risks over the long term (10 years), ranked by severity FIGURE 2.2 Source World Economic Forum Global Risks Perception Survey 2024-2025."Please estimate the likely impact (severity) of the following risks over a 10-year period." 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th Adverse outcomes of AI technologies Inequality Cyber espionage and warfare Societal polarization Pollution 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th Extreme weather events Critical change to Earth systems Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse Natural resource shortages Misinformation and disinformation Risk categories Economic Environmental Geopolitical Societal Technological Korea, Italy or Germany, unfavourable demographic trends could accentuate these societal risks over the next 10 years. Pensions crises and labour shortages in the long-term care sector are likely to become acute problems, with no easy fix for governments. Section 2.5, Super-ageing societies explores this risk theme. Economic risks fall mostly in the bottom half of the 10-year risk ranking and have remained relatively stable compared to last year’s survey. But as Section 2.6, Looking back: 20 years of the Global Risks Report shows, economic risks tend to be volatile over time – meaning that an economic crisis should not be ruled out over the next 10 years. One significant area of concern is Crime and illicit economic opportunity, which has increased 16 positions year-on-year to #15 in the 10-year ranking. Geopolitical risks, despite topping the immediate- term ranking and featuring among the top 10 in the short-term ranking are noticeably absent from the top 10 rankings when it comes to the outlook for the next decade. Nonetheless, State-based armed conflict has increased from #15 last year to #12, and there has been an uptick in the Biological, chemical or nuclear weapons risk by seven positions to #19. State-based armed conflict remains a long-term concern for respondents from the Middle East and Northern Africa in particular; this is the only region with a geopolitical risk in the top five (Figure 2.3). The overall 10-year risk outlook has remained relatively stable compared to last year’s Global Risks Report, suggesting that little has been achieved when it comes to risk mitigation or solutions. Extreme weather events (#1), Natural resource shortages (#4), Misinformation and disinformation (#5), Adverse outcomes of AI (#6) and Pollution (#10) rank identically compared to last year’s edition. However, when it comes to Pollution, it is noticeable that younger survey respondents are especially concerned, with the under 30s age group ranking it at #3. There is also divergence across stakeholder groups in how Pollution is ranked, with government respondents, Global Risks Report 2025 44