Looking deeper into State-based armed conflict, its 10-year risk ranking experienced noticeable upticks in 2010-2011, when it rose from #24 to #7 – perhaps in part because of the start of the Syriancivil war in March 2011. A similar uptick is seenfrom 2014-2015, as the war in Syria escalated, withheavy casualties. 92 The heightened long-term risk per ceptions have unfortunately been validated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the wars in the Middle East and Sudan, among others. Indeed, State-based armed conflict is the #1 short-term concern today among GRPS respondents. Section 1.3: “Geopolitical recession” notes the growing realization that we are in an era of conflict, without multilateral solutions in sight. State-based armed conflict is a clear example of the interconnected nature of risks and of their compounding effects. Conflict intensifies humanitarian crises, including Involuntary migration or displacement. Perceptions of this risk in the GRPS have experienced a pattern similar to that of State-based armed conflict, in particular from 2015 onwards. Societal risks are the third major long-term concern The third category of risks with a strong presence in the upper-left quadrant of Figure 2.17 is societal risks. Although this risk category has not featured in every edition of the Global Risks Report, five of the eight risks rank above the average: Inequality (wealth, income), Lack of economic opportunity or unemployment, Societal polarization, Infectious diseases, and Erosion of human rights and/or civic freedoms. Inequality, Lack of economic opportunity or unemployment, and Societal polarization are the three societal risks that have ranked high consistently. These rankings provided steady indications that we were moving towards a more polarized world. Looking at Societal polarization more closely, it has increased its ranking from #21 when it was introduced in 2012 to #8 this year. Economic risks are perceived as less of a long- term risk Looking at Figure 2.17, six economic risks rank below the average over the last 20 years: Disruptions to critical infrastructure, Disruptions to a systematically important supply chain, Crime and illicit economic activity, Economic downturn, Inflation and Concentration of strategic resources (and technologies). Only two economic risks have presented an above-average long-term threat according to GRPS respondents: Debt (corporate, public, household), which, as shown in Figure 2.20, has remained relatively stable as a long-term risk since the 2007-2008 financial crisis, and Asset bubble burst. 311 510-year risk rank10 152025 Year2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2022 2023 2025 2024 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Pollution: Evolution in ranking, 2009-2025 FIGURE 2.19 Source World Economic Forum Global Risks Report, 2009-2025.Pollution (air, soil, water, etc.) Global Risks Report 2025 68