Geoeconomic confrontation tops the Global Risks Perception Survey 2025-2026 (GRPS) ranking this year over both the immediate-term and the two-year time horizon, rising eight positions compared to last year in the latter ranking (Figure 23). A related risk, State-based armed conflict, which topped the immediate-term risk list last year, is in second place in the GRPS this year, and at #5 in the two-year outlook. These two risks are closely interlinked, with escalation in the severity of one also affecting the other. In the Global Risks Report 2025,2 we highlighted the risk of geoeconomic tensions escalating, pointing to a specific set of risks around trade and tariffs, but also noting that these should be regarded as part of a broader divergence between West, East and South, albeit with many countries forging their own pathways and balancing relationships with the different sides. It was clear that a trend of global geoeconomic fragmentation was taking hold. Today, this trend is firmly in place, despite moments in which tensions appear to ease temporarily.3 Looking ahead over the next two years, a wider range of economic levers may be used by governments worldwide within the broader objectives of building national security and Multipolarity without multilateralism 2.2 5% 18% 12% 25% 18% 21% 1% 7% 23% 17% 17% 12% 21% 1% Short-term (2 years) and long-term (10 years) risk severity score distribution: Geoeconomic confrontationFIGURE 23 Source World Economic Forum Global Risks Perception Survey 2025-2026Deployment of economic levers by global or regional powers to reshape economic interactions between nations, restricting goods, knowledge, services, or technology with the intent of building self-sufﬁciency, constraining geopolitical rivals and/or consolidating spheres of inﬂuence. Includes, but is not limited to: currency measures; investment controls; sanctions; state aid and subsidies; and trade controls. Note Severity was assessed on a 1-7 Likert scale [1 – Low severity, 7 – High severity]. The percentages in the graphs may not add up to 100% because ﬁgures have been rounded up/down.1 Low High 2 3 4 5 6 7Severity 10-year rank: 19th 1st 10-year average risk severity score: 4.57 10 years 2 years –Geoeconomic confrontation is set to deepen, with governments drawing on a widening array of economic tools, often in service of national security goals. –Multilateralism is facing ever stronger headwinds and there is rising evidence of the decline of the rules- based international order. –Global competition, local polarization and the associated inability to tackle shared challenges collectively will create new risks for the rule of law and societal stability. Neon Wang, Unsplash Global Risks Report 2026 25