Global Risks Report 2026

Disruptions to a systematically important supply chain Geoeconomic confrontation (sanctions, tariffs, investment screening etc.) 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.12 0.13 0.14 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 AGO ARE ARG ARM AUS AUT AZE BEL BGD BGR BHR BIH BOL BRA BRN BWA CAN CHE CHL CIV CMR COD COL CPV CRI CZE DEU DNK DOM DZA ECU EGY ESP EST FIN FRA GAB GBR GEO GHA GMB GRC GTM HKG HND HRV HUN IDN IND IRL IRN IRQ ITA JOR JPN KAZ KEN KGZ KOR KWT LAO LBR LKA LSO LTU LUX LVA MAR MEX MKD MLI MLT MNG MOZ MUS MWI MYS NAM NGA NLD NOR NPL NZL OMN PAK PAN PER PHL POL PRT PRY QAT ROU RWA SAU SEN SGP SLV SVN SWE TCD THA TUN TUR TWN TZA UKR URY USA VEN VNM XKX YEM ZAF ZMB ZWEGeoeconomic confrontation (sanctions, tariffs, investment screening etc.) vs. Disruptions to a systematically important supply chain, by income group, 2026–2028FIGURE 25 Source World Economic Forum Executive Opinion Survey 2025Income group High income Upper middle income Lower middle income Low income No classificationBased on the responses to the Executive Opinion Survey question “In your country, what are the top five risks that are most likely to pose the biggest threat to their respective country in the next two years?”. Each point represents a country./uni00A0 Realpolitik logic meets Weltpolitik ambition Trade and global value chains continue to experience their most significant disruption in decades,5 and trade policy uncertainty is high.6 Among the worst- case scenarios, governments could impose tariffs not only on those countries/blocs imposing tariffs on them, but on all their trading partners. Such across- the-board tariffs globally would lead to a substantial contraction in global trade.7 Geoeconomic confrontation is already spreading well beyond tariffs. Indeed, governments appear to be losing faith in the legal framework underpinning global trade. The World Trade Organization’s (WTO’s) dispute system, crucial to the peaceful resolution of trade disputes, is becoming marginalized; the number of cases brought to it has fallen to about one-third of the level prior to when its Appellate Body – a key component of that system – was disabled in 2019.8 At the same time, investment screening policies are becoming more widely implemented by G20 countries. They are driven by more considerations around strategic realignment and national security than in previous years.9 Countries not aligned with either China or the United States could face pressure to comply with sanctions regimes. The number of sectors considered “strategic” to national security and affected by sanctions, including export controls and investment bans, is rising. Sectors that have recently been targeted with sanctions include AI, chips, biotech, quantum, drones and rare earths. These trends are reflected in the GRPS, where Disruptions to a systemically important supply chain (#19) has risen three positions in the two-year time horizon ranking. Country-level results from the EOS reinforce this pattern: economies that place Geoeconomic confrontation high in their national risk rankings tend also to report concerns about Disruptions to systemically important supply chains (Figure 25). Geoeconomic confrontation and Global Risks Report 2026 27