100%% of OECD countries with lower scores than previous year50% 25%75% 0% 202051% 202157% 202263% 202363% 202470% 202583%Deteriorating rule of law across the OECD FIGURE 27 Source World Economic Forum, based on World Justice Project Rule of Law Index 2025.In a manifestation of this rising country-level fragility, protests led in part by the youth and organized on social media, may be gathering momentum. In much the same way that global trade and economic collaboration has been seen as the domain of elites in recent years, the new posture towards economic nationalism may in due course also elicit public backlash. As more people are feeling excluded from political decision-making and losing hope for improved livelihoods, protests have led to recent political change in Nepal (in 2025), Bangladesh (2024) and Sri Lanka (2022), for example.17 As societal polarization rises globally in tandem with misinformation and disinformation, reactions by some governments are pointing towards more authoritarian rule. Evidence is building that, within countries, the rule of law is deteriorating.18 In the Global Risks Report 202519 we highlighted that the world had entered a “geopolitical recession”. This is now contributing to what the World Justice Project Rule of Law Index 2025 has termed an accelerating “global rule of law recession”, in which 68% of 143 countries and jurisdictions surveyed saw their rule of law decline in 202520 (Figure 27). Of particular concern is that the pace of decline in 2025 was sharp, demonstrating that typically slow and painstaking progress in establishing the rule of law can be reversed quickly.21 Actions for today Recognizing today’s climate of geoeconomic confrontation, governments can nonetheless find ways to collaborate and identify areas of consensus. Where global progress is not attainable in the short term, “coalitions of the willing” can move forward in specific areas of trade and investment. Economic inducements that foster mutual gains should be prioritized over those that are designed to cause economic pain to other countries. The ability of the private sector to engage with stakeholders across the political spectrum, domestically and abroad, should be safeguarded. Public-private consultation mechanisms can help to support transparency around decision-making, clarifying the business environment in an era of intensifying economic and financial statecraft.22 Coalitions of the willing can also play a pivotal role in strengthening support for existing multilateral institutions. It is critical for public, private and civil society stakeholders to continue to work together to support existing multilateral institutions wherever feasible (Figure 28). Global Risks Report 2026 30