Global Value Chains Outlook 2026
Page 6 of 36 · WEF_Global_Value_Chains_Outlook_2026.pdf
Beyond legacy
supply chains1
Orchestrating resilience, innovation
and trust across supply chains is essential
to thrive amid fractured global systems.
Legacy supply chains were built for linear efficiency
and abundance; they now face structural volatility
driven by geopolitical tensions, proxy conflicts,
policy interventions and rapid automation. The
global operating environment is undergoing a
profound realignment, where legacy supply chain
models are no longer viable. What was once a
stable web of trade and specialization has fractured
into competing blocs, asymmetric growth and
accelerating technological rivalry. Supply itself has
become the constraint – across energy, minerals,
labour, logistics and even institutional trust. In this new context, supply chains have moved from
back-office enablers to the front lines of national
strategy and corporate resilience. The goal is no
longer to restore old equilibrium or absorb shocks,
but to build systems designed to master the
permanence of disruption. Success now depends
on shifting from forecasting to orchestrating the
future – aligning supply security, innovation and
ecosystem trust into an integrated, adaptive model
of advantage that can flex with the forces reshaping
the global economy.
At the end of the day, every dollar we spent on agility
has probably got a 10x return on every dollar spent on
forecasting or scenario planning.
Marc Engel, Chief Supply Chain Officer, Unilever (2016-2022)9
Uncertainty in the global operating environment
is no longer an iterative cycle to manage but
rather a system condition to design for. The
latest projections from the IMF, World Bank, the
Organization for Economic Co-operation and
Development (OECD) and the United Nations (UN)
all point to lower growth for longer, warning that
geopolitics, economic divergence and technological
asymmetry have made disruption a permanent
feature of the world economy.10
Volatility is now the baseline. Geopolitical
competition predominantly informs national strategy
as countries pursue security and sovereignty, while
industrial policy interventions have shifted from
exception to norm. The Global Trade Alert has
recorded more than 3,000 new trade and industrial-
policy measures so far in 2025, roughly 3.5 times
the annual total in 2016.11 Meanwhile, energy and resource nationalism are reshaping access to
critical minerals and inputs. The policy environment
itself has become an operating variable – dynamic,
contested and deeply consequential for where
companies build, source and invest.
Five structural forces are redefining global supply
chains:
Subdued and uneven growth. Demand and
supply are decoupling as slow growth, persistent
inflation and tightening capital markets reshape
profitability and investments. Growth stagnates
in advanced economies while select emerging
regions expand. Operations leaders are shifting
their paradigm from supply chasing demand to
demand shaped around constrained supply,
redesigning networks around local growth, energy
and infrastructure readiness.1.1 Orchestrating supply chains for optionality
and growth
1
Global Value Chains Outlook 2026: Orchestrating Corporate and National Agility
6
Ask AI what this page says about a topic: