Growth in the New Economy Towards a Blueprint 2026

Business leaders’ expectations point to a growth outlook centred on investment and external demand, with limited anticipated support from household consumption.In navigating the new economy, countries and industries will be impacted by shifts in market segments and sources of potential business growth, as restrictions to trade, demographic trends, green and technological transition reshape access to foreign markets and trends in public spending, private consumption and business investment. Table 3 maps the sources business leaders expect will mainly drive growth in their companies over the next 5 years, distinguishing between foreign demand (export-driven growth) and three domestic channels: public spending and investment, business investment, and consumer spending. At the global level, business investment and foreign demand are the most frequently cited sources of expected growth, at 46.7% and 45% of respondents, respectively. Across income groups, these channels remain the most cited, with business investment more prominent in low-income economies and foreign demand cited slightly more frequently in high-income economies. Regional patterns are consistent with this distribution. Foreign demand is particularly prominent in Southern Asia (particularly in India) and remains widely cited in South-Eastern Asia (Indonesia, Singapore), Europe (Germany, Sweden) and North America, despite rising trade policy uncertainty. In Latin America and the Caribbean and Sub-Saharan Africa, business investment is cited more frequently than other sources – particularly in Argentina, Brazil, Chad, Chile and Liberia – pointing to expectations that domestic capital formation will play a central role in supporting growth. Consumer spending does not emerge as a primary expected source of growth in any region or income group. In many advanced economies, including Europe, expectations of weaker household demand coincide with pressures on real incomes and declining populations. Consumer-led growth is expected to be particularly low in Australia, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Singapore and Switzerland – among others. Growth expectations in these geographies are instead more closely associated with investment and external demand, both of which depend on evolving economic and trade conditions. Similarly, public spending and investment are expected to drive a significant part of business growth only in the Middle East and Northern Africa, where more than 50% of businesses have identified this source of growth (more than 70% in Jordan and Qatar). Industry patterns point to differences in how business leaders expect growth to be generated across sectors. Chemicals and materials, advanced manufacturing, and mining and metals report the highest shares of foreign demand, 59.7%, 57.7% and 57.1%, respectively, pointing to a strong association with international markets and, by implication, greater exposure to trade disruptions and supply chain reconfiguration. In contrast, retail and wholesale and insurance and pensions are more frequently associated with domestic sources of growth, particularly consumer spending and business investment. Infrastructure and healthcare show relatively high shares of public expenditure (50.5% and 50%), pointing to a stronger link with public expenditure and, by implication, greater exposure to fiscal consolidation pressures. Taken together, business leaders’ expectations point to a growth outlook centred on investment and external demand, with limited anticipated support from household consumption. Growth in the New Economy: Towards a Blueprint 23