Growth in the New Economy Towards a Blueprint 2026

Executive summary A convergence of deep structural transformations – from the acceleration of AI, heightened geostrategic competition and record levels of debt to demographic shifts and rebalancing of environmental and societal priorities – is shaping the contours of the new economy. In the meantime, a sustained slowdown of growth and deepening economic divides are calling into question growth models across advanced and emerging economies alike. Geopolitical rifts, including the recent supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, threaten to cause further economic scarring and heighten uncertainty about the future trajectory of growth and prosperity across regions. Taken together, these forces create new challenges and trade-offs – but also opportunities – around economic growth. The winners in the new economy will be those who understand competing threats and opportunities and build agile growth pathways, balancing reinvention with long-term thinking and a focus on the fundamentals. Building on the outcomes of dialogues held as part of the World Economic Forum’s Future of Growth Initiative between 2024 and 2026, this paper summarizes a set of “no-regret” moves and dilemmas that decision-makers navigate in their continuing efforts to grow in the new economy. The report uses simplified dilemmas that should be interpreted as a range, while recognizing that effective policy-making often blends both sides. These are structured across four key areas of economic policy: –Technology, productivity and human capital: Sustained growth in the new economy is anchored in “no-regret” moves that strengthen productivity and human capital as technology and knowledge become central to value creation. In the meantime, governments and businesses navigate between different approaches to translating innovation into new sources of growth (competition vs coordination) and ensuring its benefits are widely shared (mobility vs redistribution). –Global cooperation and domestic capacity: Leveraging comparative advantage and diversification are among the “no-regret” moves that may enable expansion of economic opportunity and resilience. How governments and businesses balance global engagement with the strengthening of domestic capacity and navigate between self-reliance and global integration strategies will shape the global geoeconomic and growth landscapes. –Business environment and the role of government: Key opportunities lie in “no-regret” moves focused on reinforcing the fundamentals of economic policy – including credible institutions, high-quality infrastructure and macroeconomic stability – and strengthening multistakeholder alignment. How decision- makers navigate the dilemmas around the role of government (“small” vs “bold” government) and rising public debt amid slower growth (fiscal prudence vs financial repression) will shape the trajectory of growth. –Sustainability and economic policy: Focusing on the economic and societal benefits of green transition strategies is essential to unlocking long-term prosperity and resilience. Meanwhile, critical dilemmas around how to manage the costs and trade-offs of greener growth persist, with decision-makers navigating a range of investment-led and cost-led strategies. Anticipating growth in the new economy The insights from the latest World Economic Forum’s survey of 11,000 business executives globally, together with the latest International Monetary Fund (IMF) projections, provide a snapshot into key drivers, barriers and opportunities for accelerating growth by 2030. Although the outlook for the global economy is subject to heightened uncertainty and potential revisions amid deepening geopolitical rifts, business and other stakeholder expectations can provide early insight to inform the elaboration of national blueprints for growth in the new economy. Growth will continue to shift, with middle-income economies expected to account for 65% of cumulative GDP (gross domestic product) growth between 2025 and 2030. Despite registering the The new economy calls for a new agile blueprint for growth.Growth in the New Economy: Towards a Blueprint April 2026 Growth in the New Economy: Towards a Blueprint 3