Growth in the New Economy Towards a Blueprint 2026

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Introduction The world is going through a set of deep geopolitical, economic, societal and technological transformations, creating new challenges and opportunities for economic growth. In many advanced economies, a growing share of citizens believe that the growth models pursued over the past 30 years have failed to secure them a fair share of the economic benefits brought by technology and globalization. In emerging markets, geoeconomic fragmentation and the expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics are calling into question traditional development pathways based on low-cost labour and export- oriented manufacturing. Meanwhile, the rise of geostrategic competition and economic statecraft is triggering sudden disruptions and long-term shifts in energy systems, supply chains, techno-industrial regimes and investment flows. Yet, there are also new opportunities amid change. Estimates suggest that, over the next 5 years, global GDP (gross domestic product) will increase by about $56 trillion in total.1 Powered by advances in AI, quantum and other technologies, the largest opportunities may lie in IT services, advanced manufacturing, energy and other tech-driven industries – and in advancing innovation and modernization of agriculture, education, healthcare, tourism and transport services. What are the pathways to growth in the new economy? What are the no-regret moves as well as the dilemmas in this new context? This report builds on 2 years of dialogues held as part of the World Economic Forum’s Future of Growth Initiative. Policy-makers, business leaders and economists joined a series of dialogues in Davos-Klosters, Dubai, New York, Riyadh, Tianjin and Washington D.C. between 2024 and 2026 to identify key learnings and questions about enabling economic growth in the coming decade. These dialogues were complemented by a quantitative country-level exploration of the speed and quality of growth, documented in the Future of Growth Report 2024,2 calling for new ways of measuring what matters, from intangible and digital assets to resilience, inclusion and natural capital. This report synthesizes the outcomes of the community dialogues on pathways to growth in the new economy as well as inputs from the Global Future Councils on the Future of Growth and the Business of Economic Growth. It also integrates the latest data from the Forum’s survey of over 11,000 business leaders around the world on their views about the future trajectories of growth in the new economy. The objective of this report is to take stock of the certainties and uncertainties around enabling growth in the new economy, and to stimulate dialogue about what works and what does not. It aims to support policy-makers and business leaders in anchoring strategies around “no-regret” moves while being clear about dilemmas and the range of response options for them. Qualitative foresight into industry-level dynamics, potential sources of business growth, and the expected impact of global trends and local barriers aims to support and inform national public-private dialogues and ensure they maintain a long-term perspective, beyond immediate crisis management. The winners in the new economy will be those who understand competing threats and opportunities and build new growth pathways, balancing bold execution and reinvention with long-term thinking and a focus on the fundamentals. Understanding key trends, “no-regret” strategies and policy dilemmas is critical for shaping new pathways to growth. Growth in the New Economy: Towards a Blueprint 5
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