This section analyses the data for eight high-priority diseases: malaria, dengue fever, post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), generalized anxiety disorder (GAD), stunting, hypertension, heat-related diseases and asthma. A summary of the analysis is presented in Figure 3, while deep dives into these diseases are available in an Annex, published separately here by Oliver Wyman. Malaria Vector-borne infectious diseases such as malaria will be significantly exacerbated by climate change, which extends the range of several species of mosquitoes, increasing the geographical extent of the diseases they carry. Up to 8.4 billion people could be at risk of contracting malaria or dengue fever by the end of the century due to climate change.41 Malaria alone is projected to cost an additional $1 trillion and add 409 million DALYs (cumulatively) by 2050 because of climate change.42In central Africa alone, malaria is expected to cost the healthcare system around $345 billion and add 151 million DALYs by 2050. Notably, the impact of climate change on malaria is predicted to extend to more economically developed countries; in 2023, for the first time in 20 years, the US recorded cases of domestic malaria transmission, according to Johns Hopkins University.43 Addressing the priority unmet medical needs for malaria offers significant potential to reduce the health and economic impacts exacerbated by climate change. Analysis conducted for this report shows that introducing novel prevention methods (e.g. the development of single-use vaccines with associated improved patient adherence), diagnostics and treatments could prevent approximately 44% of the projected health and economic burdens linked to malaria proliferation. This could save up to 180 million DALYs, prevent nearly $450 billion in economic losses (including $6 billion in healthcare costs) and avert 3.59 million deaths.2.3 Mitigation strategies for health and economic impacts – by diseases 3.6 million malaria deaths, $3.5 trillion of economic costs from heat-related disease and almost 400 million stunting DALYs are potentially preventable by 2050. Healthcare in a Changing Climate: Investing in Resilient Solutions 13

Healthcare in a Changing Climate 2025