Intergenerational Foresight 2026

1 Electoral short-termism and agency erosion Frequent electoral cycles and performance pressures often lead to decisions that deliver visible near-term gains. Long-term impacts are delayed, diminished, or externalized. Over time, these deferrals accumulate into structural constraints that limit future choices. As options narrow, governance becomes increasingly reactive, reinforcing short-term decision-making and further eroding temporal sovereignty. 2 Techno-optimism and pathway lock-in Confidence that future technologies will resolve today’s trade-offs can reduce urgency to safeguard optionality in the present. This optimism often justifies regulatory and investment decisions that harden specific pathways in digital infrastructure, energy systems and industrial policy. Once established, these pathways become difficult to reverse, even if underlying assumptions change. Long-term dependencies form, narrowing the opportunity space available to future decision-makers. 3 Present-focused sovereignty and exported risk Efforts to secure strategic autonomy today can shift environmental and social risks to other regions with weaker safeguards. Policies designed to strengthen present sovereignty, such as green industrial strategies or critical minerals supply chains, may create external dependencies and legitimacy risks that undermine long-term agency. While appearing effective in the short term, these choices can reduce collective freedom of action over time. Across these dynamics, a common pattern emerges. Decisions optimize for present performance while gradually reducing future optionality. The cumulative loss of reversibility, flexibility and strategic choice remains largely invisible in current governance frameworks until constraints become binding.Across Europe and Eurasia, multiple structural pressures converge. Demographic ageing is reshaping social contracts, with people over 65 projected to comprise roughly one quarter of the population by 2050. At the same time, democratic quality has declined across parts of the region, accompanied by falling public trust and growing perceptions that political systems struggle to represent long-term interests fairly.1 Social cohesion is further strained by rapid digital transformation.2 Rising anxiety among young people, loneliness among older adults and problematic patterns of social media use weaken the relational foundations on which collective decision-making depends.3 These dynamics do not directly cause governance failure, yet they erode the trust and legitimacy required to sustain long-horizon policymaking.Public perceptions reflect this tension. Surveys consistently reveal that many citizens think governments are inadequately prepared to balance generational interests. Political systems are optimized for current demands, while the long-term consequences remain inadequately considered and addressed.4 In this context, decisions taken today increasingly carry irreversible implications for future generations, even when framed as prudent or necessary responses to current pressures. Europe and Eurasia’s institutional complexity adds another layer. Multi-level governance across supranational, national and subnational levels enables coordination at scale, yet it can also diffuse responsibility for long-term outcomes. Decisions made within one jurisdiction may constrain options elsewhere or shift risks across borders, complicating accountability over time.REGIONAL CONTEXT Pressure on legitimacy and long-term agency SYSTEM DYNAMICS How future agency is quietly eroded RATIONALE Reclaiming temporal sovereignty The above dynamics reveal a core governance challenge. Europe and Eurasia can manage immediate pressures but lack mechanisms to systematically safeguard long-term agency. Policies focused on current sovereignty, technological confidence, or short-term stability may seem reasonable in isolation, but collectively they limit the futures accessible to future generations. Intergenerational Foresight: An Approach for Long-Term Responsibility in Governance 12