Mainstreaming Natural Capital 2025

Introduction The global economic system, designed to promote growth and improve human development, has largely succeeded in lifting millions out of poverty. However, this system was designed with the assumption that nature is an externality and an unlimited resource. As we approach the limits of resource exploitation, the trade-offs are becoming more pronounced – such as the tension between food security and soil degradation, or the balancing act between industrial expansion and habitat destruction. The time has come for a paradigm shift in how we think, measure and make decisions about nature. The natural capital approach offers a critical pathway forward, integrating the value of ecosystems and natural assets into decision- making alongside physical, human and financial capital. Healthy ecosystems and productive landscapes are not just environmental concerns; they are essential assets for long-term socio- economic resilience. Natural capital accounting and valuation are key to making this transition, providing decision-makers with the data necessary to evaluate trade-offs related to the health of natural assets and their contributions to socioeconomic well-being. Yet, despite growing interest from governments, businesses and civil society, natural capital remains largely undervalued in mainstream economic systems. Existing metrics – such as gross domestic product (GDP) – are deeply ingrained but imperfect, masking the underlying risks of resource depletion and perversely incentivizing environmental degradation. While these metrics have been useful in shaping the modern economy, they fail to account for the critical role nature plays in economic production and human well-being. A long-term systems change is essential, starting with integrating natural capital into decision-making. This shift could address not only the “tragedy of the commons” often associated with environmental externalities, but also the “tragedy of horizons” where risks such as biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse are pegged as long-term risks in decision- makers’ minds despite their imminent impact. As an example, analysis by the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report – based on insights from over 900 experts across academia, business, government, international organizations and civil society – has, across multiple editions, consistently scored “biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse” as the 2nd, 3rd or 4th most urgent global risk ranked by severity over the next 5-10 years. Yet it has failed to highlight these risks as a priority within the next two years. This needs to change, through a rapid mindset shift that values nature in ways that make the business case for sustainability clear, helping to steer investments towards more resilient and resource-efficient models. This paper outlines how the natural capital approach can help drive these transformations. It synthesizes insights from over three decades of work in the global natural capital discourse and offers insights to support decision-makers seeking to navigate the increasingly complex and interconnected challenges of the 21st century. It also seeks to inform the global community of key areas for future progress, building on renewed global momentum for the Kunming- Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) after a vibrant COP16 in Colombia in October 2024. This momentum will now prove critical to carry the agenda through global headwinds buffeting both climate and nature action. The paper comprises four chapters: 1. Understanding natural capital – key terms and trends in public and private approaches. 2. Challenges to mainstreaming natural capital – six complex and related challenges to overcome. 3. Advancing the agenda – five proposed workstreams to elevate natural capital in decision-making. 4. Next steps – the Forum’s contribution to advancing the agenda, through a new Global Future Council on Natural Capital, with a new vision and goals.Mainstreaming Natural Capital: Advancing the Global Agenda to Integrate Nature in Decision-MakingSeptember 2025 Integrating natural capital in decision- making is essential for building resilient, sustainable economic systems. Mainstreaming Natural Capital: Advancing the Global Agenda to Integrate Nature in Decision-Making 3