Making the Green Transition Work for People and the Economy 2025

1. Sternfels, B., S. Singhal, C. Levy, B. Weddle, et al. (2025). Multinationals at a crossroads: Adapting to a new geopolitical era. McKinsey & Company. https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/geopolitics/our-insights/multinationals-at-a-crossroads-adapting-to-a-new-geopolitical-era. 2. Ruta, M. (2023). The Rise of Discriminatory Regionalism. International Monetary Fund (IMF). https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2023/06/the-rise-of-discriminatory-regionalism-michele-ruta. 3. UN-iLibrary (2021). Available at: https://www.un-ilibrary.org/content/journals/15645304/2018/4/11. 4. The Russian invasion of Ukraine tightened Europe’s gas supply, posing significant energy security challenges throughout the region: Germany temporarily returned to coal power and the fuel poverty gap in the UK rose sharply after a decade of decline, due largely to rising prices. High import bills for petroleum products strained fiscal balances in countries like Ghana, Kenya and Sri Lanka, are placing upward pressure on inflation. These challenges have prompted change, albeit with divergent implications for decarbonization. The EU, for example, fast-forwarded plans to reduce gas consumption and rapidly increase renewable installations. This response has had a near-immediate impact, with one-twentieth of European energy now originating in Russia, compared to one-fifth in 2022. In parts of Asia and Africa, energy insecurity motivated a scaling of renewables but equally reinforced a reliance on coal and natural gas to meet energy demand. 5. UK Government Department for Energy Security & Net Zero. (2024). Annual Fuel Poverty Statistics in England, 2024 (2023 data). https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/65ccecba1d939500129466a9/annual-fuel-poverty-statistics-report-2024.pdf. 6. International Energy Agency (IEA). (n.d.). Germany. https://www.iea.org/countries/germany. 7. International Energy Agency (IEA). (2025). Oil Market Report – August 2025. https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-august-2025. 8. IEA (2025). Available at: https://www.iea.org/news/ai-is-set-to-drive-surging-electricity-demand-from-data-centres-while-offering-the-potential-to-transform-how-the-energy-sector-works. 9. International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2025). World Economic Outlook: A Critical Juncture amid Policy Shifts. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2025/04/22/world-economic-outlook-april-2025. 10. Nature Finance. (2021). Greenness of Stimulus Index – 6th Edition. https://www.naturefinance.net/resources-tools/greenness-of-stimulus-index/. 11. European Commission. (2025). The economic impact of higher defence spending. https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/economic-forecast-and-surveys/economic-forecasts/spring-2025-economic-forecast-moderate-growth-amid-global-economic-uncertainty/economic-impact-higher-defence-spending_en#potential-fiscal-and-macroeconomic-impact-of-higher-defence-spending. 12. NATO. (2025). Funding NATO. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_67655.htm. 13. Steil, B. (2025). Global Monetary Policy Tracker. Council on Foreign Relations. https://www.cfr.org/tracker/global-monetary-policy-tracker . 14. United Nations. (2025). United Nations Secretary-General launches report to break “the cycle of debt distress”, ahead of Major UN Financing Conference. https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/blog/2025/06/ffd4-press-release-sg-report-2025/. 15. Global inequality has remained relatively constant throughout the 20th and 21st centuries, with the top 10% income share holding roughly 60% of total income, and the bottom 50% holding around 5-10%. By contrast, within-country inequality broadly fell to 1980, before increasing to 2020. Chancel, L. and T. Piketty. (2021). Global Income Inequality, 1820–2020: the Persistence and Mutation of Extreme Inequality. Journal of the European Economic Association, Volume 19, Issue 6, December 2021, pp. 3025-3062. 16. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. (n.d.). The 17 Goals. https://sdgs.un.org/goals. 17. When respondents to the World Economic Forum’s Global Risk Perception Survey (2025) were asked to rank one among 33 pre-selected risks that they believe are the most likely to present a material crisis on a global scale in 2025, “societal polarization” ranked fifth; World Economic Forum. (2025). Global Risks Report 2025. https://www.weforum.org/publications/global-risks-report-2025/. 18. Malloch-Brown, M. (2023). How to rebuild trust in institutions: results, results, results. World Economic Forum. https://www.weforum.org/stories/2023/12/how-to-rebuild-trust-in-philanthropy-results-results-results/. 19. Fursman, L. (2025). The Climate Paradox: Why We Need to reset Action on Climate Change. Tony Blair Institute for Global Change. https://institute.global/insights/climate-and-energy/the-climate-paradox-why-we-need-to-reset-action-on-climate-change. 20. World Trade Organization (WTO). (2023). Trade Policy tools for Climate Action. https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/publications_e/tptforclimataction_e.htm. 21. World Economic Forum. (2022). Global Risks Report 2022. https://www.weforum.org/publications/global-risks-report-2022/. Endnotes Making the Green Transition Work for People and the Economy 174