Making the Green Transition Work for People and the Economy 2025

Growth economies In the World Economic Forum’s equitable transition country archetype framework, the growth economies archetype comprises middle- and upper-middle income countries experiencing rapid industrialization, with large pools of youth in the workforce and a significant share of employment in industry and agriculture. Growth economy countries contribute a large share of global GHG emissions, though at lower per-capita levels than developed countries. The green transition presents an opportunity to build strong low-emissions industrial sectors in these countries to power future economic growth. Among the barriers to competitiveness in the green economy, regulatory uncertainty and compliance burden emerge as the top concerns, reported by 42% of executives surveyed – significantly higher than the global average at 36%. Out of 33 countries in this archetype, the barriers to climate competitiveness from regulatory uncertainty were identified as the leading concern in 16 countries. Given the green investment gap in emerging and developing countries, access to a wide range of financial instruments at scale and competitive terms remains a bottleneck. More than a third of the executives surveyed identified financial concerns, such as slow return on green investments and limited access to finance, as challenges to developing competitive business models in countries in this archetype. The majority of executives surveyed from countries in this archetype expressed challenges from limited access to green technologies and know-how, which can be explained by lower expenditures in R&D (as share of GDP), and barriers to technology transfer. Executives surveyed from countries in this archetype express higher concern than the global average on the possibility of rising unaffordability of goods and services from cost pass-through of green transition to consumers, which indicates the importance of targeted mechanisms to support low-income households. Furthermore, enabling infrastructure and supply chains that are essential to provide access to services such as renewable energy, clean mobility and sustainable housing are developing in these countries. As a result, access to green alternatives might not be possible in remote or rural geographies. Executives surveyed concur on this risk, with 62% of responses identifying restricted affordability of goods and services as an equity risk, significantly higher than the global average of 51%. India’s green transition journey is marked by big ambitions – yet notable hurdles remain. Executives say limited access to green technologies (35%) and skilled talent (34%) are the country’s main stumbling blocks, much higher than global averages, and chronic underinvestment in R&D (only 0.65% of GDP) holds progress back. Many also worry that green goods and services may become less accessible for ordinary people, with 81% rating this as the biggest risk. Worker displacement and the need for know-how and tech capacity are other top risks from the green transition that can exacerbate inequities in India. In Brazil, regulatory uncertainty and compliance burdens dominate as the top barrier to green transition, with nearly 60% of executives highlighting it – a challenge aligned with broader Latin American and middle-income economy trends. Finance-related issues follow, with over a third of executives citing limited investment capacity and access to finance. Organizational culture and resistance to change also pose notable barriers. Equity risks focus on financing shortages (85%) and gaps in technological know-how (68%), mirroring global patterns but with higher finance concerns. Making the Green Transition Work for People and the Economy 30