Net Zero Industry Tracker 2024 Aluminium

Readiness key takeaways Technology 3 –Electricity decarbonization for secondary aluminium smelting is available, with material and process efficiency at the demonstration stage (TRL 8).415 –Inert anodes are at the demonstration stage (TRL 7) and CCUS is at the concept stage (TRL 3), both targeting commercial readiness by 2030.416 Infrastructure 3 –9.5 MTPA of clean hydrogen and 86 MTPA of CCUS are required by 2050.417 –223 GW of clean power is required by 2050.418 –Power purchase agreements (PPA) are increasing for use of clean power for production, with China harnessing hydropower. Demand 3 –Approximately 30% of the total primary aluminium produced emitted less than 5 t of CO2e/t of aluminium in 2021.419 –The green premium for B2B is estimated at 40%.420 –Momentum in offtake agreements and announced projects has slowed down over the last year. Capital 1 –Currently, the aluminium sector has an annual CapEx of $23 billion. –Over $19 billion in additional annual investments are required by 2050 by the aluminium sector and by infrastructure buildout companies. –Significant additional investment requirement, low industry margins and ease of increasing capital are leading to the low capital readiness score. Policy 2 –The EU has introduced CBAM, covering aluminium, with certificate purchases starting in January 2026.421 –By 2025, 30% of China’s aluminium capacity must meet efficiency benchmarks, 25% of energy must be renewable and recycled output should reach 11.5 million tons. Sector priorities Company-led solutions Mid-term (by 2030) –Source low-carbon grid power to reduce carbon intensity. –Retrofit existing fossil-fuel-based captive power assets with CCUS, where access to clean power grids is not economical. –Develop and deploy low-emission refining technologies like electric boilers, mechanical vapour recompression, etc. –Accelerate market readiness for low-emission smelting technologies like inert anodes. –Improve efficiencies and end-user scrap collection rate to maximize secondary production. –Ensure product-level emissions reporting.Long-term (by 2050) –Scale up the use of electric boilers for low and mid- heat processes. –Scale up the use of low-emission clean technologies (e.g. inert anodes). Ecosystem-enabled solutions Mid-term (by 2030) –Invest in clean power infrastructure and grid capacity supported by energy storage systems to support the net-zero transition. –Implement policies that further support the development and commercialization of low-emission clean technologies. –Encourage scrap use and transparent declaration. –Introduce and enforce industry-level standards (e.g. ASI’s chain of custody422).Long-term (by 2050) –Reduce production cost premiums through an increased number of low-emission projects. –Enable shared infrastructure and supply-chain stability through strategic partnerships. –Develop infrastructure and market for green hydrogen to decarbonize boilers and calcination. Net-Zero Industry Tracker: 2024 Edition 3