3Ocean economy risks The risks associated with the ocean economy are not confined to a narrow set of marine industries, nor are they future or hypothetical. They are already embedded across global trade, infrastructure, real estate and supply chains. Understanding these risks is therefore less about identifying new exposure than recognizing where value is already at stake, and where more deliberate management can unlock resilience and improve investment outcomes. Many investors underestimate their ocean exposure due to narrow definitions of what constitutes “marine” or “maritime” activity. In practice, any real estate in a coastal nation is ocean-exposed, as are goods and materials transported by sea, major coastal infrastructure such as offshore energy, and a wide range of projects and businesses that interact with – or depend on – the ocean at some point in their supply chains. Maritime trade illustrates how ocean risk is already systemically priced into the global economy, often implicitly and inefficiently. In maritime trade alone, the expected value of trade disrupted (EVTD) is $191.5 billion (nearly 1% of all global trade) annually, with ultimate economic losses estimated at roughly $14 billion annually through delays, rerouting, insurance premiums and higher freight costs.85 Climate change- specific risks also have material impact on port and shipping economics. The University of Oxford finds that 86% of major ports globally are exposed to more than three types of climatic and geophysical hazards, including tropical cyclones, flooding, earthquakes and extreme marine conditions.86 Climate-related port downtime alone places approximately $6787 to $81 billion88 of global trade at risk each year, with broader economic activity exposed to losses exceeding $120 billion annually. Similar dynamics are evident on land, where growing concentrations of people, capital and infrastructure along coastlines are increasing the value of assets exposed to ocean-related risk. An estimated 2.75 billion people (roughly one third of the global population) already live within 100 km89 of coastline and urban land in low elevation coastal zones (LECZs) has been shown to expand at a significantly faster rate than in inland,90 implying that the share of coastal population and infrastructure will continue to grow, increasing the value of assets exposed to ocean risk. The World Wildlife Fund and Metabolic estimate that up to $4 trillion of global coastal infrastructure will be at risk due to declining ocean health and climate change over the next 15 years in a business-as-usual case.91 These risks and losses are already being felt. For example, in coastal tourism infrastructure, over 90% of resorts surveyed in the Maldives have experienced moderate to severe beach erosion, with roughly 60% experiencing considerable infrastructure damage due to climate-related events.92 These damages are likely to result not only in higher construction and maintenance costs, but also in reduced occupancy and revenue, putting pressure on businesses and assets. One study estimated that properties in high or very high flood risk areas experience a 15.6% reduction in value and that the implicit price of being located close to an eroded beach is roughly 26%.93 These impacts do not indicate that coastal assets are inherently uninvestable, but rather that failure to integrate ocean and climate risk into planning, design, and financing is already eroding value. Crucially, these risks are neither unavoidable nor unmanageable. There are sufficient mitigation tools that can be leveraged. Financial tools such as parametric insurance schemes are one such instrument uniquely suited to industries with high levels of exposure to natural environments like the ocean. This insurance subsector is expected to grow significantly due to increasingly frequent natural disasters and climate-related events, reaching an estimated $34.4 billion.94 By providing rapid liquidity following extreme events such as storms, storm surge, or abnormal wave conditions, parametric insurance can reduce downtime, stabilize revenues and improve the bankability of coastal and ocean-dependent assets, thereby supporting continued investment in a high-risk but high-value economic domain. In this context, effective ocean risk management is not a defensive exercise, but a prerequisite for scaling investment, lowering the cost of capital, and sustaining long-term value creation across ocean-dependent sectors. As with other complex systems, competitive advantage will accrue to those actors who recognize ocean exposure early and invest accordingly. The Ocean Economy Imperative: Defining Value, Managing Risk and Mobilizing Investment 15

Ocean Economy Imperative 2026