Europe’s demographic landscape is undergoing a seismic shift. By 2050, the 75- to 84-year age group will increase by nearly 60%, while its working age population will shrink by 20%, largely due to low birth rates and higher life expectancy.27,28 The economic and social aftershocks will be felt across the continent, as an ageing population shrinks the labour market and increases strain on social welfare and healthcare systems.29 The European Union urgently needs a strategic framework to be more resilient to the challenges of such sweeping demographic change. There are policy options available. European leaders can boost economic incentives to increase the birth rate, tailored to the social preferences of each society. Governments could work to increase women’s participation in the workforce as well as to supplement labour market shortages with automation, AI and digitalization, which will play key roles in securing the economic production of the future. But these measures are only part of the solution. To comprehensively address its demographic dilemma, Europe also needs a more strategic approach to migration. While migration holds the key to securing Europe’s economic future, it is currently the subject of heightened politicization. To date, there have been difficulties reaching a common European migration policy, as the recent conclusion of the Pact on Migration and Asylum has shown.30 Having passed into force in June 2024, achieving the pact’s objectives will now hinge on the mutual trust and cooperation of member states, as well as effective leadership and monitoring by European institutions. Even if European governments can successfully implement it, the pact alone will not be enough to stymie the continent’s ageing and shrinking workforce problem. To reduce this vulnerability and reap the economic and social benefits of migration, the EU should practice strategic interdependence by adopting a more comprehensive and granular approach to migration, based on stronger partnerships with origin and transit countries. An effective European approach to migration requires a strategy of cooperation with partner countries that considers their needs and perspectives. It will also require a comprehensive set of policies that go beyond the scope of the pact and bring back to the debate several of the proposals put forward by the European Commission in its original initiative.31 Securing the future Migration agreements can benefit from the comprehensive approach that European institutions and member states bring to the negotiation table, provided they integrate partner countries’ aims to mitigate the impacts of “brain drain” as much as European concerns to curb irregular migration. To compensate for what origin countries perceive as a loss of skills due to migration of qualified citizens, the EU should invest in education, professional and vocational training systems in those origin countries. This would provide both a confidence-building measure and a tool that benefits both sides. Promoting regular and safe migration flows requires strategic investments before and after migrants arrive at borders, including pre-departure programmes and immediate post-arrival integration plans. As most migratory flows are labour market- driven, Europe can address its own skills shortages by assessing the needs of the single market and coordinating national admission decisions at the European level. Governments, private sector and civil society, particularly universities and research institutions, will need to work more proactively together in identifying needs and opportunities to set up regular migration channels. Pathways to permanent residence and citizenship can be tools to attract and retain workers that Europe needs, particularly students and researchers. Together with governments, European academic institutions can develop joint efforts to attract and retain the most promising students and researchers, as well as promoting regular pathways to permanent residence and citizenship for highly skilled workers. This should include a unified visa scheme for non-EU nationals, allowing free movement across EU member states. In the same vein, fighting irregular migration is as much about having robust border controls as it is ensuring effective labour market regulation by authorities, to prevent abuses and violence against migrants who are deprived of legal status. Policy-makers should address head-on the challenges of integrating migrants in host societies, as they become more complex and diverse. While admission policies are largely the task of national authorities, the integration of migrants is a mostly local-level process. Local authorities and stakeholders are often left alone to address the needs of new migrant flows, which are difficult to plan for, especially when they occur quickly. Evidence shows there is no integration system that can fit all possible contexts. European integration strategies need to incorporate an understanding of the diversity of migratory flows, including their distinct interactions with host communities, the differences between flows to urban and rural areas, and the increasing role of climate change in driving migration. In all aspect of migration, there is both scope and need for a joint European approach, based on sharing best practice, evidence and knowledge as well as financial tools to support national and local strategies of integration. Lastly, but importantly, public opinion in destination countries is prone to disinformation and manipulation, largely due to the perception that migratory flows are out of control. This narrative By 2050, Europe’s 75- to 84-year age group will increase by nearly 60%, while its working age population will shrink by 20%, largely due to low birth rates and higher life expectancy. Open but Secure: Europe’s Path to Strategic Interdependence 15

Open but Secure Europe%E2%80%99s Path to Strategic Interdependence 2025